In 2021–22, 99.7% of Texas teacher hires replaced teachers who had left the prior year, making attrition the dominant driver of demand¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2023 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Nearly all statewide teacher demand in Texas in 2021–22 was attributable to prior-year attrition rather than growth. → Bland 2023

Evidence¶

Bland 2023¶

Bland, J. A., Wojcikiewicz, S. K., Darling-Hammond, L., & Wei, W. (2023). Strengthening pathways into the teaching profession in Texas: Challenges and opportunities. Learning Policy Institute. https://doi.org/10.54300/957.902

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Analysis of Texas Education Agency workforce data reported in the section The Status of the Teacher Workforce in Texas. The report states that "99.7% of statewide hires were to replace teachers who had left teaching in Texas public schools the year before."

"in 2021–22, 99.7% of statewide hires were to replace teachers who had left teaching in Texas public schools the year before."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Texas teacher attrition has exceeded the national average by about 25% over the past decade, reaching nearly 12% in 2021–22 — related
• U.S. teacher attrition averages 8–9% annually, about twice the rate of Canada, Finland, and Singapore, and drives roughly 9 in 10 annual hires — a broader claim this one bears on
• High teacher attrition, near 8% annually, is the largest share of teacher demand, and halving it could virtually eliminate shortages — a broader claim this one bears on
• Texas teacher attrition exceeds the national average by over 50%, with about 12% of teachers exiting districts before the 2023–24 school year
• Sierra Middle School staff attrition was cut nearly in half after the 2023–24 school year — related
• A statewide cohort analysis found 8% of new Texas teachers left after year 1, 26% by year 5, and 46% by year 8 — related