A statewide cohort analysis found 8% of new Texas teachers left after year 1, 26% by year 5, and 46% by year 8¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associationalr2·q2
Currency · newest study 2023 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · recheck by 2028: baselines and conditions change
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q2 i? Attrition is especially pronounced among early-career Texas teachers, with cumulative losses reaching nearly half a cohort by year 8. → Bland 2023
Evidence¶
Bland 2023¶
Bland, J. A., Wojcikiewicz, S. K., Darling-Hammond, L., & Wei, W. (2023). Strengthening pathways into the teaching profession in Texas: Challenges and opportunities. Learning Policy Institute. https://doi.org/10.54300/957.902
q2 · i? · associational · r2
Longitudinal cohort analysis of Texas new teachers from 2012 to 2018, reported in the Teacher Attrition section and Table 2. The report notes the loss of a quarter of a cohort by year 5 challenges workforce stability, given over a third of Texas teachers have 5 years of experience or less.
"A statewide analysis of new teacher cohorts, following them from 2012 to 2018, found that an average of 8% of new teachers left the classroom after year 1, an average of 26% by year 5, and an average of 46% by year 8 (Table 2)."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- Texas teacher attrition has exceeded the national average by about 25% over the past decade, reaching nearly 12% in 2021–22 — related
- U.S. teacher attrition averages 8–9% annually, about twice the rate of Canada, Finland, and Singapore, and drives roughly 9 in 10 annual hires — related
- Texas teacher attrition exceeds the national average by over 50%, with about 12% of teachers exiting districts before the 2023–24 school year
- Sierra Middle School staff attrition was cut nearly in half after the 2023–24 school year — related
- In 2021–22, 99.7% of Texas teacher hires replaced teachers who had left the prior year, making attrition the dominant driver of demand — related
- High teacher attrition, near 8% annually, is the largest share of teacher demand, and halving it could virtually eliminate shortages — related
- Teacher attrition rose from 5.1% in 1992 to 8.4% in 2005 and has hovered around 8% since — related
- Between 2020–21 and 2021–22, 15.1% of U.S. public school teachers moved schools or left the profession, and turnover is now about 20% higher than in 1992 — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
texas-early-career-attrition-cohort-analysis |
title |
A statewide cohort analysis found 8% of new Texas teachers left after year 1, 26% by year 5, and 46% by year 8 |
description |
A statewide cohort analysis found 8% of new Texas teachers left after year 1, 26% by year 5, and 46% by year 8 |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2023 |
recheck_by |
2028 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-10 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — bland-2023 |
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