Academic performance indicators correctly identified a larger share of eventual off-track students than the attendance indicator¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associationalr2·q3
Currency · newest study 2016 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2019: tool and model accuracy changes quickly
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q3 i? The credits indicator had a true-positive rate of 64 percent versus 32 percent for attendance; Fs identified 65 percent and GPA below 2.0 identified 55 percent of eventual off-track students. → Snipes 2016
Evidence¶
Snipes 2016¶
Snipes, J., & Tran, L. (2016). Early indicators and academic mindsets in the Clark County School District. San Francisco, CA: REL West @ WestEd. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED573499
q3 · i? · associational · r2
Comparison of individual 8th grade indicators in table 1 (sample size = 22,355 as printed). The report states the Fs indicator "captured 65 percent" and low GPA "identified 55 percent" of students who fell off track, with false-positive rates of 10 to 20 percent for academic indicators.
"The true-positive rate for the credit indicator was approximately twice as high as the true-positive rate for the attendance indicator (64 versus 32 percent)."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- Low attendance is linked with lower academic skills, grades, and high school graduation, and high attendance with higher ones — the general claim this finding bears on, with the studies behind it
- Composite 8th grade indicators identified 75 to 77 percent of eventual off-track students but raised false-positive rates to about 30 percent — related
- By the end of sophomore year, 84 percent of eventual non-graduates showed at least one warning indicator — related
- Three freshman warning indicators—off-track status, any course failure, and attendance below 85 percent—identify 70 percent of eventual non-graduates — related
- A pilot ethnic studies program in San Francisco high schools led to gains in attendance, grades, and credit accumulation — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
academic-indicators-outperform-attendance-true-positive |
title |
Academic performance indicators correctly identified a larger share of eventual off-track students than the attendance indicator |
description |
Academic performance indicators correctly identified a larger share of eventual off-track students than the attendance indicator |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2016 |
recheck_by |
2019 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-09 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — snipes-2016 |
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