Composite 8th grade indicators identified 75 to 77 percent of eventual off-track students but raised false-positive rates to about 30 percent¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2 · q3
Currency · newest study 2016 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2019: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q3 i? The composite indicator for attendance, credits, or Fs identified 75 percent of off-track students (29 percent false-positive); adding low GPA raised identification to 77 percent (30 percent false-positive). → Snipes 2016 q3 i? Requiring two or more risk indicators reduced the false-positive rate from 29 to 17 percent but lowered correct identification from 75 to 66 percent. → Snipes 2016 (2)

Evidence¶

Snipes 2016¶

Snipes, J., & Tran, L. (2016). Early indicators and academic mindsets in the Clark County School District. San Francisco, CA: REL West @ WestEd. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED573499

q3 · i? · associational · r2

Analysis of composite indicators (table 1). The report states the attendance-credits-Fs composite identified 75 percent with a 29 percent false-positive rate, and the four-indicator composite a 30 percent false-positive rate.

"If an indicator for whether or not a student had an 8th grade GPA below 2.0 was added, the percentage of the students who eventually fell off track that were identified at the end of the 8th grade increased to 77 percent."

Snipes 2016 (2)¶

Snipes, J., & Tran, L. (2016). Early indicators and academic mindsets in the Clark County School District. San Francisco, CA: REL West @ WestEd. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED573499

q3 · i? · associational · r2

Table 1 analysis of composite thresholds. The report states this approach "also caused the percentage of the off-track students who had been successfully identified to fall from 75 to 66 percent."

"Using the composite variable that categorized students as at risk if they had at least two of these same individual risk indicators reduced the false-positive rate from 29 to 17 percent."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Academic performance indicators correctly identified a larger share of eventual off-track students than the attendance indicator — related
• Three freshman warning indicators—off-track status, any course failure, and attendance below 85 percent—identify 70 percent of eventual non-graduates — related
• By the end of sophomore year, 84 percent of eventual non-graduates showed at least one warning indicator — related
• Sophomore OnTrack rose from 61 to 85 percent and predicts graduation, but 30 percent of non-graduates were on-track as sophomores — related
• Freshman on-track status is an early indicator correlated with later graduation, and being off track correlates with dropping out — a broader claim this one bears on
• A pilot ethnic studies program in San Francisco high schools led to gains in attendance, grades, and credit accumulation — related