By the end of sophomore year, 84 percent of eventual non-graduates showed at least one warning indicator¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2020 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2023: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Nearly all non-graduates showed a sophomore warning indicator: 84 percent had a flag as sophomores, including 63 percent off-track and 21 percent more with low attendance or a course failure. → Seeskin 2020

Evidence¶

Seeskin 2020¶

Seeskin, A., Mahaffie, S., & Usher, A. (2020). The forgotten year: Applying lessons from Freshman success to Sophomore year. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/the-forgotten-year

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Analysis of 2014-15 freshmen by graduation status (Figure 13) shows sophomore warning indicators (off-track status, attendance below 85 percent, any course failure) captured "84 percent" of eventual non-graduates, with 63 percent off-track and 21 percent flagged only by attendance or failure.

"In total, 84 percent of these students had a warning flag as sophomores: 63 percent were off-track, and an additional 21 percent had either an attendance rate below 85 percent"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Freshman attendance below 85 percent predicts non-graduation even among students with similar grades — related
• Three freshman warning indicators—off-track status, any course failure, and attendance below 85 percent—identify 70 percent of eventual non-graduates — related
• Student performance declines from freshman to sophomore year, with course failures rising in every subject and attendance declining sharply — related
• Gains in sophomore performance were unequal: about one in five Latino and Black young men were off-track at the end of sophomore year — related
• Sophomore OnTrack rose from 61 to 85 percent and predicts graduation, but 30 percent of non-graduates were on-track as sophomores — related
• Freshman on-track status is an early indicator correlated with later graduation, and being off track correlates with dropping out — related
• Academic performance indicators correctly identified a larger share of eventual off-track students than the attendance indicator — related
• Composite 8th grade indicators identified 75 to 77 percent of eventual off-track students but raised false-positive rates to about 30 percent — related