Three freshman warning indicators—off-track status, any course failure, and attendance below 85 percent—identify 70 percent of eventual non-graduates¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2020 · checked against its sources 2026-10-08 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2023: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Together, off-track status, a course failure in any course, and freshman attendance below 85 percent flag most (70 percent) of incoming sophomores who did not go on to graduate. → Seeskin 2020

Evidence¶

Seeskin 2020¶

Seeskin, A., Mahaffie, S., & Usher, A. (2020). The forgotten year: Applying lessons from Freshman success to Sophomore year. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/the-forgotten-year

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Analysis of 2014-15 freshmen by graduation status (Figure 9) shows the three warning indicators flagged "most (70 percent)" of eventual non-graduates. The report also notes 17 percent of 2018 graduates had one or more warning indicators, so flags are not destiny.

"Together, they identify most (70 percent) of the incoming sophomores who did not go on to graduate"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Freshman attendance below 85 percent predicts non-graduation even among students with similar grades — related
• By the end of sophomore year, 84 percent of eventual non-graduates showed at least one warning indicator — related
• Sophomore OnTrack rose from 61 to 85 percent and predicts graduation, but 30 percent of non-graduates were on-track as sophomores — related
• Non-core course failures in ninth grade were associated with decreases in four-year graduation rates similar to core course failures — related
• Student performance declines from freshman to sophomore year, with course failures rising in every subject and attendance declining sharply — related
• Most students needing Algebra I credit recovery failed multiple ninth-grade courses and few were on track to graduate — related
• On-track improvements were accompanied by across-the-board grade gains, not grade inflation from turning Fs into Ds — related
• Graduation rates rise with freshman credits earned, with a large gap above six credits — related
• Freshman failures clustered in math more than English, and many students failed both core subjects — related
• Freshman on-track status is an early indicator correlated with later graduation, and being off track correlates with dropping out — related
• Ninth-grade on-track status (at least five credits and no more than one semester F) makes students almost four times more likely to graduate — related
• Composite 8th grade indicators identified 75 to 77 percent of eventual off-track students but raised false-positive rates to about 30 percent — related
• Academic performance indicators correctly identified a larger share of eventual off-track students than the attendance indicator — related
• Core-course failures in freshman year strongly predict non-graduation, similarly across subjects — related
• Ninth-grade early warning systems around course grades and attendance led to substantial improvements in grades, graduation rates, and test-measured learning gains — related