ACT scores show a weak relationship with college graduation, with slope variation across high schools larger than the average signal¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r3 · q3
Currency · newest study 2020 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q3 i? The standardized linear ACT coefficient (0.129) is much smaller than HSGPA's (0.703), and the standard deviation of ACT slopes (0.192) exceeds the average slope. → Allensworth 2019

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2019¶

Allensworth, E. M., & Clark, K. (2020). High School GPAs and ACT Scores as Predictors of College Completion: Examining Assumptions about Consistency across High Schools. Educational Researcher, 49(3), 198–211. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/high-school-gpas-and-act-scores-as-predictors-of-college-completion doi:10.3102/0013189x20902110

q3 · i? · associational · r3

Continuous-variable HLM models (Model 2, Table 4) predicting six-year graduation for the same CPS sample. The article reports the odds increase of 14 percent per SD of ACT and that "the variance in the slopes (s.d. of slopes = 0.192) is larger than the average slope (0.129)."

"The standardized linear term is much smaller than that of standardized HSGPA scores (0.129 vs. 0.703), with the odds of graduating increasing by 14 percent (odds coefficient of 1.14) for every standard deviation increase in ACT scores"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Adding ACT scores to models with HSGPA contributes little to the prediction of college graduation and does not reduce between-school variability — related
• ACT scores weakly predict college graduation, and the school-level variance in the ACT slope (0.192) exceeds the average slope (0.129), so school effects introduce more noise than the ACT signal — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• HSGPAs have a strong, consistent relationship with college graduation that is larger than school effects, while ACT scores have a weak relationship smaller than high school effects with slopes varying by school — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• The linear slope of the HSGPA–college graduation relationship does not vary significantly across high schools, so HSGPA provides a consistent signal across schools — related
• HSGPA has a strong, positive relationship with college graduation that does not vary significantly in its linear slope across high schools — related
• For four-year (rather than six-year) graduation, ACT scores are slightly predictive but their coefficient is one-sixth the HSGPA coefficient — related
• Both HSGPA and ACT strongly predict four-year college enrollment and enrollment in colleges with strong graduation rates — related
• HSGPA strongly predicts six-year college graduation among four-year college enrollees, with odds of graduating doubling per standard deviation of HSGPA — related
• School average ACT scores predict college graduation for students with the same individual HSGPA and ACT score, reducing between-school variance by 42 percent, while school poverty is not significant once average ACT is included — related
• Both HSGPA and ACT scores leave large high school effects on college graduation unexplained, which the study recommends measuring and publishing directly — related
• School-average ACT scores strongly predict individual college graduation, doubling the odds per standard deviation — related