ACT scores weakly predict college graduation, and the school-level variance in the ACT slope (0.192) exceeds the average slope (0.129), so school effects introduce more noise than the ACT signal¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associationalr2–r3·q2
Currency · newest study 2019 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2022: tool and model accuracy changes quickly
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q2 i? Each standard deviation increase in ACT raises the odds of graduating by only 14 percent (odds coefficient 1.14), and the relationship becomes negative among the highest achievers. → Allensworth 2019
q2 i? The variance in ACT slopes across schools (0.192) is larger than the average slope (0.129), so where a student attended high school says more about graduation than their individual ACT score among average or high scorers. → Allensworth 2019 (2)
Evidence¶
Allensworth 2019¶
Allensworth, Elaine M., & Clark, Kallie. (2019). Are GPAs an Inconsistent Measure of College Readiness across High Schools? Examining Assumptions about Grades versus Standardized Test Scores. University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/are-gpas-inconsistent-measure-achievement-across-high-schools-examining-assumptions
q2 · i? · associational · r3
Hierarchical models parallel to the HSGPA models, substituting ACT scores (n=17,753). The article reports an unstandardized "odds coefficient of 1.14" and a "negative quadratic term", so the relationship is larger among low achievers and negative among the highest achievers.
"The standardized linear term is much smaller than that of standardized HSGPA scores (0.129 vs. 0.703), with the odds of graduating increasing by 14 percent (odds coefficient of 1.14) for every standard deviation increase in ACT scores when the quadratic term equals zero."
Allensworth 2019 (2)¶
Allensworth, Elaine M., & Clark, Kallie. (2019). Are GPAs an Inconsistent Measure of College Readiness across High Schools? Examining Assumptions about Grades versus Standardized Test Scores. University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/are-gpas-inconsistent-measure-achievement-across-high-schools-examining-assumptions
q2 · i? · associational · r2
Random-slope ACT model variance components. The article concludes that "noise introduced by school effects is larger than the signal from ACT scores" for students with average or high ACT scores.
"The variance components show that the linear component of the slope varies significantly, and the variance in the slopes (0.192) is larger than the average slope (0.129)."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- Adding ACT scores to models with HSGPA contributes little to the prediction of college graduation and does not reduce between-school variability — related
- ACT scores show a weak relationship with college graduation, with slope variation across high schools larger than the average signal — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
- For four-year (rather than six-year) graduation, ACT scores are slightly predictive but their coefficient is one-sixth the HSGPA coefficient — related
- Both HSGPA and ACT strongly predict four-year college enrollment and enrollment in colleges with strong graduation rates — related
- High school GPA is a better predictor of college graduation than standardized test scores, yet districts continue to rely on test-based readiness benchmarks — related
- HSGPAs have a strong, consistent relationship with college graduation that is larger than school effects, while ACT scores have a weak relationship smaller than high school effects with slopes varying by school — related
- School average ACT scores predict college graduation for students with the same individual HSGPA and ACT score, reducing between-school variance by 42 percent, while school poverty is not significant once average ACT is included — related
- High school GPA is the strongest predictor of college admission, persistence, and graduation, more than ACT or SAT scores — related
- The linear slope of the HSGPA–college graduation relationship does not vary significantly across high schools, so HSGPA provides a consistent signal across schools — related
- School-average ACT scores strongly predict individual college graduation, doubling the odds per standard deviation — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
act-weak-predictor-noise-exceeds-signal |
title |
ACT scores weakly predict college graduation, and the school-level variance in the ACT slope (0.192) exceeds the average slope (0.129), so school effects introduce more noise than the ACT signal |
description |
ACT scores weakly predict college graduation, and the school-level variance in the ACT slope (0.192) exceeds the average slope (0.129), so school effects introduce more noise than the ACT signal |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2019 |
recheck_by |
2022 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-09 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
2 — allensworth-2019, allensworth-2019-2 |
Frontmatter is the page's machine-readable record — see the Schema & Guide.