HSGPA strongly predicts six-year college graduation among four-year college enrollees, with odds of graduating doubling per standard deviation of HSGPA¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r3 · q2
Currency · newest study 2019 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Among Chicago Public Schools graduates who enrolled in four-year colleges, each standard deviation increase in HSGPA doubles the odds of graduating from college within six years, controlling for student background and college characteristics. → Allensworth 2019

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2019¶

Allensworth, Elaine M., & Clark, Kallie. (2019). Are GPAs an Inconsistent Measure of College Readiness across High Schools? Examining Assumptions about Grades versus Standardized Test Scores. University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/are-gpas-inconsistent-measure-achievement-across-high-schools-examining-assumptions

q2 · i? · associational · r3

Hierarchical logistic models of students nested within high schools (n=17,753) predicting six-year college graduation from transcript HSGPA, student background, and IPEDS college covariates. The article prints the unstandardized odds coefficient "odds coefficient = 2.02" and a positive quadratic term.

"The linear component shows that for every standard deviation increase in HSGPA, the odds of graduating from college double (odds coefficient = 2.02) at the point where the quadratic term is zero"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Both HSGPA and ACT strongly predict four-year college enrollment and enrollment in colleges with strong graduation rates — related
• High school GPA predicts four-year college graduation more strongly than achievement test scores among Chicago graduates — related
• HSGPA has a strong, positive relationship with college graduation that does not vary significantly in its linear slope across high schools — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• For four-year (rather than six-year) graduation, ACT scores are slightly predictive but their coefficient is one-sixth the HSGPA coefficient — related
• School-average ACT scores strongly predict individual college graduation, doubling the odds per standard deviation — related
• ACT scores show a weak relationship with college graduation, with slope variation across high schools larger than the average signal — related
• The linear slope of the HSGPA–college graduation relationship does not vary significantly across high schools, so HSGPA provides a consistent signal across schools — related
• Among Chicago graduates who enter four-year colleges, high school GPA is the strongest predictor of graduating within six years — related