Graduation by age 18 rose slightly, and adjusting for incoming student composition cuts the increase roughly in half¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2002 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Unadjusted graduation by age 18 rose from 40.6 to 44.3 percent, but the adjusted upward trend was only 1.6 percentage points, indicating only slight improvements can be attributed to changes in the high schools. → Shazia Rafiullah Miller 2002

Evidence¶

Shazia Rafiullah Miller 2002¶

Shazia Rafiullah Miller, Elaine M. Allensworth, Julie Reed Kochanek. (2002). Student Performance: Course Taking, Test Scores, and Outcomes — The State of Chicago Public High Schools: 1993 to 2000. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/student-performance-course-taking-test-scores-and-outcomes

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Cohort analysis following Chicago students from age 13 until exit, tracking the 1992–93 through 1995–96 cohorts to graduation. The unadjusted rate rose from 40.6 to 44.3 percent, but "an increase of only 1.6 percent" remained after adjusting for incoming student composition.

"With an increase of only 1.6 percent, the upward trend in adjusted graduation rates by age 18 is substantially smaller than the unadjusted one."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• On-track rates after ninth grade rose from 42.2 to 50.6 percent, with slightly less than half the adjusted improvement attributable to better-prepared entering students — related
• CPS graduation rates increased by 22.4 percentage points over 16 years, from 52.4 percent among students who turned 19 in 1998 to 74.8 percent in 2014 — related
• Rising honors course-taking was due primarily to better-prepared students, with only small adjusted gains — related
• Graduation by age 18 was slightly higher in later cohorts despite earlier off-schedule status — related
• Talladega County Schools' graduation rate rose from just above 70 percent in 2008 to 93 percent after its transition to project-based learning supported by digital technologies — related