On-track rates after ninth grade rose from 42.2 to 50.6 percent, with slightly less than half the adjusted improvement attributable to better-prepared entering students¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r3 · q2
Currency · newest study 2002 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? The percent of high school eligible students on track after their first year rose from 42.2 percent in 1993–94 to 50.6 percent in 1999–00; after adjusting for student composition the increase was 5.4 percentage points, suggesting slightly less than half the improvement resulted from better-prepared students. → Shazia Rafiullah Miller 2002

Evidence¶

Shazia Rafiullah Miller 2002¶

Shazia Rafiullah Miller, Elaine M. Allensworth, Julie Reed Kochanek. (2002). Student Performance: Course Taking, Test Scores, and Outcomes — The State of Chicago Public High Schools: 1993 to 2000. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/student-performance-course-taking-test-scores-and-outcomes

q2 · i? · associational · r3

Cohort trend analysis of Chicago Public Schools administrative data tracking all high school eligible students one year after elementary school, adjusted for race/ethnicity, gender, SES, special education, age, and eighth-grade ITBS. The report finds "5.4 percent more students were on track" after adjustment, with more than half the gain due to other factors.

"After adjusting for changes in student composition, 5.4 percent more students were on track (from 42.2 percent in 1993–94 to 47.6 percent in 1999–00). This suggests that slightly less than half of the improvement in on-track rates is the result of better-prepared students entering high schools; more than half is due to other factors ."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Algebra/geometry sequence passing rose from 36.5 to 49.7 percent, with changes in incoming students accounting for only 17.8 percent of the improvement — related
• Full college-sequence completion rose from 9.6 to 15.8 percent, with about 75 percent of the unadjusted increase due to factors other than student composition — related
• Graduation by age 18 rose slightly, and adjusting for incoming student composition cuts the increase roughly in half — related
• Rising honors course-taking was due primarily to better-prepared students, with only small adjusted gains — related
• Freshman OnTrack improvements were largest in the lowest-performing schools, with bottom-quartile schools gaining 33 percentage points — related
• Ninth-grade GPAs rose steadily in CPS from 2006 to 2013 alongside improvements in test scores, attendance, and behavior — related
• The percentage of Chicago ninth graders identified as eligible for special education services rose from 11.5 to 16.4 percent between 1993–94 and 1999–00 — related
• Ninth-grade on-track status predicts graduation more strongly than prior achievement, with a 55 percentage point gap after controls — related
• Freshman on-track students are over three times as likely to graduate in four years as off-track students in CPS — related