Graduation by age 18 was slightly higher in later cohorts despite earlier off-schedule status¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2002 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Thirty to 31 percent of the 1991 and 1992 cohorts graduated by age 18, compared to 34 percent for the 1994 and 1995 cohorts, with the improvement mostly from fewer students still enrolled at 18. → Elaine M. Allensworth & Shazia Rafiullah Miller 2002

Evidence¶

Elaine M. Allensworth & Shazia Rafiullah Miller 2002¶

Elaine M. Allensworth & Shazia Rafiullah Miller. (2002). Declining High School Enrollment: An Exploration of Causes. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/declining-high-school-enrollment-exploration-causes

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Cohort progression analysis (Section III). Graduation rates for 18-year-olds declined slightly with the 1996 cohort but remained above the 1991 and 1992 levels; the report notes it is too early to determine whether the trend will reverse.

"the likelihood of graduating by age 18 was slightly higher in later years, with the exception of the 1996 cohort. Thirty to 31 percent of students in the 1991 and 1992 cohorts graduated by age 18, compared to 34 percent for the 1994 and 1995 cohorts."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Graduation by age 18 rose slightly, and adjusting for incoming student composition cuts the increase roughly in half — related
• The five-year dropout rate for the first cohort fully subject to the CPS promotion policy (1995) continued the slight downward trend, but pre-age-18 patterns do not clearly indicate a change — related
• Over 40 percent of Chicago Public Schools students drop out by age 19, with a slight downward trend across the 1991–1994 cohorts — related
• Later cohorts fell off schedule for graduation at earlier ages, but the percentage off schedule by age 16 changed very little — related
• Students delayed by promotion gates recovered on-schedule status more easily than those delayed by course failure — related
• Chicago graduation rates improved steadily since the early 1990s except for the first two cohorts subject to the eighth-grade promotion standard, and age-16 dropout rates declined for the last five years — related