CPS four-year completion rates rose 7 percentage points over ten years while enrollees nearly doubled, but remained far below six-year rates¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q3
Currency · newest study 2023 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q3 i? From 2004 to 2014, CPS graduates' four-year completion rates increased by 7 percentage points as enrollees grew from 4,588 to 8,893, while six-year rates rose 3 percentage points. → Nagaoka 2023

Evidence¶

Nagaoka 2023¶

Nagaoka, J., Mahaffie, S., Usher, A., & Arneson, A. (2023). The four years fallacy: Four-year vs. six-year bachelor's degree completion rates. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/the-four-years-fallacy

q3 · i? · associational · r2

Trend analysis of CPS cohorts from 2004 to 2014 shown in Figure 1, using National Student Clearinghouse data on immediate four-year enrollees. The report states four-year rates "increased by 7 percentage points" and six-year rates rose 3 points. No effect size is printed.

"CPS graduates' four-year bachelor's degree completion rates have increased by 7 percentage points over the past 10 years, even as the number of college enrollees nearly doubled from 4,588 in 2004 to 8,893 in 2014. The six-year completion rate has shown a more modest 3 percentage point increase."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Four-year and six-year completion rates varied widely by college, with gaps between colleges of up to 27 percentage points in four-year rates hidden by similar six-year rates — related
• Among 2014 CPS graduates who immediately enrolled in college, 46% completed a credential within six years, with large gaps by enrollment pathway — related
• The six-year college graduation rate for CPS graduates enrolling in four-year colleges rose to 50 percent in 2014, 10 points below the national rate — related
• Six-year college completion rates for immediate four-year enrollees rose from 54 to 56 percent for the CPS class of 2013, double the rate for immediate two-year enrollees — related
• Four-year college graduation rates remained flat at about 49 percent for direct four-year enrollees, with much lower rates for two-year (8 percent) and delayed enrollees (4 percent) — related
• Six-year college completion among the CPS class of 2015 varied sharply by enrollment pathway: 55.8% for immediate four-year enrollees, 32.5% for immediate two-year enrollees, and 7.8% for delayed/non-enrollees — related
• The CPS four-year college enrollment rate rose from 33 percent in 2006 to 42 percent in 2014, slightly below the national rate — related
• CPS alumni college completion (48%) remains below the national average (64%), with 56% of immediate four-year and 32% of immediate two-year enrollees completing within six years — related
• Immediate four-year enrollees were far more likely than immediate two-year enrollees to complete a four-year degree within six years (48 percent vs 7 percent) — related
• Nearly one in five recent CPS ninth-graders were ever enrolled in an Options school, and their six-year graduation rate improved about 5 percentage points but remained below 50 percent — related
• CPS graduates' four-year college graduation rate remained roughly constant over seven years (46 to 48 percent) and well below the national rate — reports the opposite