Graduation rates rise with freshman credits earned, with a large gap above six credits¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r3 · q3
Currency · newest study 2005 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q3 i? The more credits students earn freshman year, the more likely they are to graduate in four years; more than 70 percent of students earning six credits graduated and 85 percent of those earning seven or more. → Allensworth 2005

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2005¶

Allensworth, E. M., & Easton, J. Q. (2005). The On-Track Indicator as a Predictor of High School Graduation. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/track-indicator-predictor-high-school-graduation

q3 · i? · associational · r3

Observational analysis of the fall 2000 CPS cohort by credits earned, reported with Figure 4. Only 40 percent of students with exactly five credits—the promotion minimum—graduated in four years, and the report notes students actually need more than five credits to graduate on time.

"More than 70 percent of students who earned six credits in their freshman year graduated, and fully 85 percent of freshmen who earned seven or more credits graduated in four years."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Within every student category, freshman GPA, course failures, and absences are strongly related to five-year graduation rates, with large drops per half grade point, per additional course failure, and per absence band — related
• More than 95 percent of Chicago freshmen with a B average or better graduate within four years — related
• Three freshman warning indicators—off-track status, any course failure, and attendance below 85 percent—identify 70 percent of eventual non-graduates — related
• Ninth-grade on-track status (at least five credits and no more than one semester F) makes students almost four times more likely to graduate — related