Ninth-grade on-track status (at least five credits and no more than one semester F) makes students almost four times more likely to graduate¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q3
Currency · newest study 2014 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q3 i? Students who earned at least five academic credits and had no more than one semester F in a core course in ninth grade were almost four times more likely to graduate than students who did not meet these criteria. → Stevens 2014

Evidence¶

Stevens 2014¶

Stevens, W. D., Allensworth, E. M., Pareja, A. S., de la Torre, M., Gwynne, J. A., Rosenkranz, T., & Sebastian, J. (2014). Free to Fail or On-Track to College: An Introduction to the UChicago CCSR Research Series. UChicago CCSR Research Brief. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/free-fail-or-track-college

q3 · i? · associational · r2

A 2005 UChicago CCSR analysis of 10 years of longitudinal district records across Chicago high schools examined whether ninth-grade course performance predicted graduation. It found on-track students were "almost four times more likely to graduate" than students not meeting the two criteria, more predictive than background or test scores.

"Students who earned at least five academic credits and had no more than one semester F in a core course in ninth grade—called "on-track to graduate" —were almost four times more likely to graduate than students who did not meet these two criteria."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Most students needing Algebra I credit recovery failed multiple ninth-grade courses and few were on track to graduate — related
• Improvements in ninth-grade course performance—credits earned, pass rates, and attendance—account for most graduation improvements beyond student background changes — related
• Three freshman warning indicators—off-track status, any course failure, and attendance below 85 percent—identify 70 percent of eventual non-graduates — related
• Ninth-grade on-track status predicts graduation more strongly than prior achievement, with a 55 percentage point gap after controls — related
• Students on track in ninth grade were four times more likely than off-track peers to graduate high school — related
• Graduation rates rise with freshman credits earned, with a large gap above six credits — related