Within every student category, freshman GPA, course failures, and absences are strongly related to five-year graduation rates, with large drops per half grade point, per additional course failure, and per absence band¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2–r3 · q2
Currency · newest study 2009 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Students with a 2.5 GPA or higher graduate at high rates in all categories (89 percent without disabilities, 78 percent below grade level, 86 percent learning disabilities, 83 percent mild cognitive disabilities), while only one-quarter to one-third of students with a 1.0 average graduate in five years. → Julia Gwynne 2009 q2 i? Students with zero to four absences per semester have graduation rates of 90 percent or greater among non-disabled students and students with learning or mild cognitive disabilities. → Julia Gwynne 2009 (2)

Evidence¶

Julia Gwynne 2009¶

Julia Gwynne, Joy Lesnick, Holly M. Hart, Elaine M. Allensworth. (2009). What Matters for Staying On-Track and Graduating in Chicago Public Schools: A Focus on Students with Disabilities. Consortium on Chicago School Research, University of Chicago Urban Education Institute. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/what-matters-staying-track-and-graduating-chicago-public-schools-focus-students

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Chapter 3 analysis (Figure 8) of the 2001 cohort relating freshman GPA to five-year graduation within each of five categories. The report notes a large decrease in graduation rates when moving down each half-grade point.

"Students with a 2.5 (C+) average or higher are very likely to graduate from high school within five years: 89 percent of students without identified disabilities, 78 percent of students who are two or more years below grade level, 86 percent of students with a learning disability, and 83 percent of students with a mild cognitive disability graduated within five years."

Julia Gwynne 2009 (2)¶

Julia Gwynne, Joy Lesnick, Holly M. Hart, Elaine M. Allensworth. (2009). What Matters for Staying On-Track and Graduating in Chicago Public Schools: A Focus on Students with Disabilities. Consortium on Chicago School Research, University of Chicago Urban Education Institute. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/what-matters-staying-track-and-graduating-chicago-public-schools-focus-students

q2 · i? · associational · r3

Chapter 3 analysis (Figure 10) relating semester absences to five-year graduation for students who do not receive special education services and students with learning or mild cognitive disabilities. The zero-to-four-absence bar is missing for students with emotional disturbances due to insufficient sample.

"these students have graduation rates of 90 percent or greater for zero to four absences per semester."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Higher absence rates are the most important factor explaining why students with disabilities fail more courses and earn lower GPAs than students without identified disabilities — related
• Course performance indicators predict ELL graduation better than ELL-specific indicators such as proficiency level or education interruptions — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• More than 95 percent of Chicago freshmen with a B average or better graduate within four years — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Freshman-year performance of Chicago ninth-graders falls into three tiers, with students two or more years below grade level and students with emotional disturbances performing worst across GPA, course failures, absences, and on-track status — related
• Ninth-grade GPA strongly predicts on-time high school graduation, with an especially large gap between F and D students — related
• Freshman attendance below 85 percent predicts non-graduation even among students with similar grades — related
• Most Chicago freshmen fail at least one course, miss substantial school, or earn below a C average in their first year — related
• Nearly 90 percent of Chicago freshmen who miss less than a week of school per semester graduate, regardless of 8th grade test scores — related
• At each level of freshman course performance, students with disabilities and students two or more years below grade level are less likely to graduate than their non-disabled peers — related
• The freshman on-track indicator predicts five-year graduation equally or more strongly for students with learning disabilities, mild cognitive disabilities or emotional disturbances than for students without disabilities, with on-track students two to six times more likely to graduate — related
• Core-course failures in freshman year strongly predict non-graduation, similarly across subjects — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Graduation rates rise with freshman credits earned, with a large gap above six credits — related
• The on-track indicator is strongly related to students' likelihood of graduating — related
• High-level outcome measures like graduation rates offer little actionable guidance for educators within a school year — related
• Five-year graduation and dropout outcomes varied by eighth-grade ITBS achievement level, with students more than a year below grade level graduating at lower rates — related
• Missing five days of school in the first semester of ninth grade decreases the likelihood of eventually graduating high school by 25 percentage points — related
• Attendance Support students maintained a 3.0 GPA despite low attendance but graduated high school at 71 percent, below the district average, and fewer than half attended college — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Six-year graduation rates for students with behavioral and learning disabilities increased substantially between 2009 and 2019, while rates for cognitive disabilities slightly declined — related
• Risk thresholds on GPA and attendance differ for active English Learners: above 95% attendance or above 2.0 GPA predicted ~90% graduation for active ELs, while former and never ELs reached similar likelihood at 90% attendance — related
• In 2019–20, 71 percent of students with disabilities graduated high school within four years versus 87 percent of all students — related
• In a Chicago middle-grades study, the combination of grades and attendance provided the best prediction of high school on-track rates, and adding test scores and grit measures did not further improve prediction — related
• Freshman-year GPA alone correctly predicts about 80 percent of on-time high school graduates — related