After controlling for demographic changes and school enrollment patterns, the postpolicy decline in dropout rates appears slightly smaller, and the report urges caution in attributing trends to the gate¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · causal r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2004 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2007: local conditions change quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? When demographic changes and school enrollment patterns were statistically controlled, the 1998-99 cohort's dropout decline was adjusted from 4.5 percent to 4.1 percent. → Allensworth 2004

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2004¶

Allensworth, E. (2004). Ending Social Promotion: Dropout Rates in Chicago after Implementation of the Eighth-Grade Promotion Gate. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/ending-social-promotion-dropout-rates-chicago-after-implementation-eighth-grade

q2 · i? · causal · r2

HLM models controlled for demographic shifts, neighborhood economic conditions, and school enrollment patterns in CPS. The adjusted decline for the 1998-99 cohort was 4.1 percent versus an unadjusted 4.5 percent.

"When demographic changes and school enrollment patterns are statistically controlled, the decline in dropout rates appears slightly smaller"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Dropout rates at age 17 remained at prepolicy levels for the first two cohorts through the promotion gate, then declined to 25 percent with the fourth cohort — related
• High school enrollment declined most in grades nine and ten, by about 15 percent between 1995-96 and 1998-99 — related
• One-year dropout rates confound changing student composition and movement through high school, unlike cohort rates — related
• The eighth-grade promotion gate had the largest impact on ninth-grade enrollment, with almost 2,900 fewer students advancing in fall 1998 — related