Dropout rates at age 17 remained at prepolicy levels for the first two cohorts through the promotion gate, then declined to 25 percent with the fourth cohort¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · causal r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2004 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Age-17 dropout rates stayed at 29-30 percent for the first two postpolicy cohorts, declined slightly with the third, and fell to 25 percent with the fourth cohort through the gate. → Allensworth 2004

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2004¶

Allensworth, E. (2004). Ending Social Promotion: Dropout Rates in Chicago after Implementation of the Eighth-Grade Promotion Gate. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/ending-social-promotion-dropout-rates-chicago-after-implementation-eighth-grade

q2 · i? · causal · r2

Matched-samples comparison of seven CPS cohorts (171,471 students) followed to at least age 17. The report states dropout rates at age 17 'remained at prepolicy levels for the first two cohorts through the promotion gate—29 to 30 percent' before this decline.

"Dropout rates then declined slightly with the third cohort through the gate and fell even further with the fourth cohort through the gate, to 25 percent."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• After controlling for demographic changes and school enrollment patterns, the postpolicy decline in dropout rates appears slightly smaller, and the report urges caution in attributing trends to the gate — related
• Chicago graduation rates improved steadily since the early 1990s except for the first two cohorts subject to the eighth-grade promotion standard, and age-16 dropout rates declined for the last five years — related
• Students delayed by promotion gates recovered on-schedule status more easily than those delayed by course failure — related
• Later cohorts fell off schedule for graduation at earlier ages, but the percentage off schedule by age 16 changed very little — related
• Retention at the promotion gate increased the likelihood of dropping out by about 8 percentage points by age 17 and 13 points by age 19 — related
• The requirement structure decreased the percentage of graduates completing both chemistry and physics, because mandated earth or environmental science pushed the combination into a fourth year — related