The eighth-grade promotion gate had the largest impact on ninth-grade enrollment, with almost 2,900 fewer students advancing in fall 1998¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2002 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2005: local conditions change quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Between 1996 and 2000, the eighth-grade promotion gate was the factor with by far the most significant impact on ninth-grade enrollment, strongest in fall 1998 when almost 2,900 fewer students advanced than at the 1995 promotion rate. → Elaine M. Allensworth & Shazia Rafiullah Miller 2002

Evidence¶

Elaine M. Allensworth & Shazia Rafiullah Miller 2002¶

Elaine M. Allensworth & Shazia Rafiullah Miller. (2002). Declining High School Enrollment: An Exploration of Causes. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/declining-high-school-enrollment-exploration-causes

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Decomposition analysis of ninth-grade enrollment change relative to fall 1995 (Section II, Figure 4). The report states its "effect was strongest in fall 1998, when almost 2,900 fewer students advanced from eighth grade and APCs to ninth grade" than if promotion rates had stayed at fall 1995 levels.

"Between 1996 and 2000, the eighth-grade promo- tion gate had by far the most significant impact on ninth-grade enrollment (see Figure 4)."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• High school enrollment declined most in grades nine and ten, by about 15 percent between 1995-96 and 1998-99 — related
• After the promotion gate, general education eighth graders were retained at far higher rates while retention of students with disabilities fell, raising the disabled share of ninth graders — related
• After controlling for demographic changes and school enrollment patterns, the postpolicy decline in dropout rates appears slightly smaller, and the report urges caution in attributing trends to the gate — related
• Defining dropout cohorts by age 13 rather than by ninth-grade entry avoids composition bias from the CPS promotion policy's grade retentions — related
• Eighth-grade achievement rose substantially in postpolicy cohorts, with the 1998 cohort's included students more than half a standard deviation above prepolicy levels
• Some observers attributed the relative decline in secondary science registrations to the disciplinary teaching attitude, while the Committee of Ten did not emphasize the informational side — related