At its current predictive level of about 2% of variance, PGS adds very little to predicting end-of-year achievement beyond progress monitoring¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · theoretical r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2021 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? When PGS predicts only 2% of variance in achievement (current technology, specific measures, younger children), adding PGS to progress monitoring adds very little overall variance predicted in end-of-year achievement. → Shero 2021

Evidence¶

Shero 2021¶

Shero, J., van Dijk, W., Edwards, A., Schatschneider, C., Solari, E. J., & Hart, S. A. (2021). The practical utility of genetic screening in school settings. npj Science of Learning, 6:12. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41539-021-00090-y

q2 · i? · theoretical · r2

Data-simulation and stepwise regression study (Methods, Research question 1) simulating multivariate normal data across combinations of PGS and progress monitoring effectiveness. The simulation found that "using the PGS adds very little" variance predicted at the current 2% effectiveness level.

"when the predictive value of PGS is low (i.e., where the technology is currently, 2%), using the PGS adds very little in terms of the overall variance in achievement predicted, even when progress monitoring's predictive value is also low."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Adding PGS as an either-cutoff screener alongside progress monitoring raises negative predictive value (fewer false negatives) at all effectiveness levels, while generally lowering PPV — related
• Incremental variance predicted by PGS over progress monitoring grows with PGS effectiveness, reaching up to 4% and 8.9% at 10% and 20% predictive power and up to 35.9% at the 50% theoretical limit — related
• Age at assessment and achievement measure moderate polygenic score predictions of educational achievement; the adjusted pooled estimate rises to ρ = 0.50 — related