Incremental variance predicted by PGS over progress monitoring grows with PGS effectiveness, reaching up to 4% and 8.9% at 10% and 20% predictive power and up to 35.9% at the 50% theoretical limit¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · theoretical r3 · q2
Currency · newest study 2021 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? At 10% and 20% PGS predictive power, PGS adds as much as 4% and 8.9% unique variance respectively when progress monitoring is least effective, and 1–2.3% when progress monitoring is most effective. → Shero 2021 q2 i? At the theoretical 50% limit, PGS adds as much as 35.9% unique variance when progress monitoring is least effective and 9% when it is most effective. → Shero 2021 (2)

Evidence¶

Shero 2021¶

Shero, J., van Dijk, W., Edwards, A., Schatschneider, C., Solari, E. J., & Hart, S. A. (2021). The practical utility of genetic screening in school settings. npj Science of Learning, 6:12. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41539-021-00090-y

q2 · i? · theoretical · r3

Simulation-and-regression analysis of 12 combinations of PGS and progress monitoring effectiveness (Results, Research question 1; Table 1 reports R2 values with unique PGS contribution in parentheses). The quote gives the printed incremental variance figures.

"At 10% and 20% predictive power, PGS predicts as much as 4% and 8.9% additional variance in achievement respectively when progress monitoring is at its least effective, and as much as 1 –2.3% respectively additional variance for the highest estimates of progress monitoring effectiveness."

Shero 2021 (2)¶

Shero, J., van Dijk, W., Edwards, A., Schatschneider, C., Solari, E. J., & Hart, S. A. (2021). The practical utility of genetic screening in school settings. npj Science of Learning, 6:12. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41539-021-00090-y

q2 · i? · theoretical · r3

Same simulation study (Results, Research question 1): at the 50% theoretical threshold drawn from twin-study heritability, incremental variance from PGS remains large even alongside high-effectiveness progress monitoring.

"At the theoretical limit of 50% predictive power, additional variance predicted by PGS reaches as much as 35.9% when the predictive value of progress monitoring is low, and 9% even when the predictive value of progress monitoring is high."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Adding PGS as an either-cutoff screener alongside progress monitoring raises negative predictive value (fewer false negatives) at all effectiveness levels, while generally lowering PPV — related
• At its current predictive level of about 2% of variance, PGS adds very little to predicting end-of-year achievement beyond progress monitoring — related
• Polygenic score predictions of education strengthen as GWAS discovery sample sizes increase — a broader claim this one bears on