High school GPA is the strongest predictor of college admission, persistence, and graduation, more than ACT or SAT scores¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2014 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? A student's high school GPA is by far the strongest predictor of college admission, persistence, and graduation, much more so than test scores such as the ACT and SAT. → Stevens 2014

Evidence¶

Stevens 2014¶

Stevens, W. D., Allensworth, E. M., Pareja, A. S., de la Torre, M., Gwynne, J. A., Rosenkranz, T., & Sebastian, J. (2014). Free to Fail or On-Track to College: An Introduction to the UChicago CCSR Research Series. UChicago CCSR Research Brief. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/free-fail-or-track-college

q2 · i? · associational · r2

The brief summarizes research in Chicago and nationally on predictors of college outcomes, reporting that "a student’s high school GPA is by far the strongest predictor" of admission, persistence, and graduation compared with ACT and SAT scores. The brief also notes students need at least a B average to have even a chance of obtaining a four-year degree.

"Research in Chicago and across the country has shown that a student’s high school GPA is by far the strongest predictor of college admis -sion, persistence, and graduation—much more so than test scores such as the ACT and SAT."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Among students with the same ACT scores (21-23), college graduation rates are 77 percent for those with a high school GPA of 3.5 or higher versus 40 percent for those with a GPA of 2.0-2.4 — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• High school GPA is a better predictor of college graduation than standardized test scores, yet districts continue to rely on test-based readiness benchmarks — related
• Students' grades are a more important predictor of college enrollment than ACT scores, which mainly constrain the selectivity of colleges attended — related
• Among Chicago graduates who enter four-year colleges, high school GPA is the strongest predictor of graduating within six years — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Course grades and GPA predict high school and college outcomes better than standardized test scores or coursework — a broader claim this one bears on
• ACT scores weakly predict college graduation, and the school-level variance in the ACT slope (0.192) exceeds the average slope (0.129), so school effects introduce more noise than the ACT signal — related
• At least 177,000 low-income high school graduates score high enough on the SAT/ACT to qualify for entry to a public research university — related
• Students with the same HSGPA or the same ACT score graduate from college at different rates depending on which high school they attended — related
• Late-arriving English Learners had cumulative GPAs similar to the district average but substantially lower SAT scores — related