K-2 assessment and latent scores predict third grade ELA grades with correlations from 0.52 to 0.63 in pre-pandemic cohorts¶
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Evidence · 1 study · associationalr2·q2
Currency · newest study 2026 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · recheck by 2029: tool and model accuracy changes quickly
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q2 i? Most assessments and latent scores predict third grade ELA grades with correlations from 0.52 in kindergarten to 0.63 in second grade. → Allensworth 2026
Evidence¶
Allensworth 2026¶
Allensworth, E., Gordon, A. & Young, C. (2026). Combining early grade assessments to study literacy skills: Addressing the variability in tests taken across schools and students. Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness, 19(1), 1-26. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/combining-early-grade-assessments-to-study-literacy-skills doi:10.1080/19345747.2026.2636957
q2 · i? · associational · r2
Predictive analysis of Chicago data using teacher-assigned literacy-standard grades on a 5-point A-F scale as the third grade outcome. MAP scores showed similar relationships to latent scores; other assessments slightly smaller.
"Most assessments, and the latent scores in grades K to 2, are also predictive of students’ ELA grades in third grade, with correlations ranging from 0.52 in kindergarten to 0.63 in second grade."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- K-2 literacy assessments are positively correlated, with MAP showing the strongest correlations with the other assessments — related
- Combined latent scores are highly predictive of third grade assessment scores in pre-pandemic years, with correlations from 0.67 to 0.82 — related
- Post-pandemic, K-2 scores predict third grade ELA outcomes with smaller but still moderate-to-large correlations (0.30-0.64 for grades; 0.47-0.81 for IAR) — related
- CCM-estimated skill profiles showed minor positive correlations with external pre- and post-test scores, ranging from .018 to .495 — related
- Students with higher spring reading assessment scores in kindergarten through grade 3 also had higher KEI and grade 3 PSSA ELA scores — related
- Kindergarten entry scores predict grade 3 reading proficiency: Philadelphia kindergarteners with higher KEI scores in 2014/15 had higher grade 3 PSSA ELA scores — related
- Teacher-assigned grades show moderate-to-strong correlations with external performance measures and predict long-term outcomes (review-reported) — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
k2-scores-predict-third-grade-ela-grades |
title |
K-2 assessment and latent scores predict third grade ELA grades with correlations from 0.52 to 0.63 in pre-pandemic cohorts |
description |
K-2 assessment and latent scores predict third grade ELA grades with correlations from 0.52 to 0.63 in pre-pandemic cohorts |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2026 |
recheck_by |
2029 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-08 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — allensworth-2026 |
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