Combined latent scores are highly predictive of third grade assessment scores in pre-pandemic years, with correlations from 0.67 to 0.82¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2026 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · recheck by 2029: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Pre-pandemic, latent scores and most assessments predict third grade scores with correlations from 0.67 (kindergarten latent score to PARCC/IAR) to 0.82 (second grade latent score to MAP). → Allensworth 2026

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2026¶

Allensworth, E., Gordon, A. & Young, C. (2026). Combining early grade assessments to study literacy skills: Addressing the variability in tests taken across schools and students. Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness, 19(1), 1-26. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/combining-early-grade-assessments-to-study-literacy-skills doi:10.1080/19345747.2026.2636957

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Predictive analysis linking Chicago K-2 records to third grade MAP, PARCC/IAR, and literacy grades. Individual assessments were slightly less predictive than the latent scores; MAP scores were the most predictive.

"Most of the assessments, and the combined latent scores, are highly predictive of third grade assessment scores in pre-pandemic years, with correlations ranging from 0.67 (kindergarten latent score predicting third grade PARCC/IAR score) to 0.82 (second grade latent score predicting third grade MAP score)."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• K-2 assessment and latent scores predict third grade ELA grades with correlations from 0.52 to 0.63 in pre-pandemic cohorts — related
• Post-pandemic, K-2 scores predict third grade ELA outcomes with smaller but still moderate-to-large correlations (0.30-0.64 for grades; 0.47-0.81 for IAR) — related
• Students with higher spring reading assessment scores in kindergarten through grade 3 also had higher KEI and grade 3 PSSA ELA scores — related
• The overall Kindergarten Readiness Assessment score predicts grade 3 achievement about as well as combinations of its subscores — related
• Kindergarten entry scores predict grade 3 reading proficiency: Philadelphia kindergarteners with higher KEI scores in 2014/15 had higher grade 3 PSSA ELA scores — related