Post-pandemic, K-2 scores predict third grade ELA outcomes with smaller but still moderate-to-large correlations (0.30-0.64 for grades; 0.47-0.81 for IAR)¶
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Evidence · 1 study · associationalr2·q2
Currency · newest study 2026 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · recheck by 2029: tool and model accuracy changes quickly
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q2 i? Each assessment and the latent scores predict third grade outcomes for post-pandemic third graders, with correlations 0.30-0.64 for ELA grades and 0.47-0.81 for IAR scores. → Allensworth 2026
Evidence¶
Allensworth 2026¶
Allensworth, E., Gordon, A. & Young, C. (2026). Combining early grade assessments to study literacy skills: Addressing the variability in tests taken across schools and students. Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness, 19(1), 1-26. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/combining-early-grade-assessments-to-study-literacy-skills doi:10.1080/19345747.2026.2636957
q2 · i? · associational · r2
Post-pandemic cohort analysis in Chicago data. All individual assessments and latent scores showed correlations of 0.30 to 0.64 with third grade literacy grades and 0.47 to 0.81 with third grade IAR scores, except kindergarten TRC-Spanish.
"Post-pandemic, the correlations between K-2 literacy scores and third grade ELA outcomes are smaller than observed in cohorts of students that reached third grade before the pandemic, but still moderate- to large- in size."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- K-2 literacy assessments are positively correlated, with MAP showing the strongest correlations with the other assessments — related
- K-2 assessment and latent scores predict third grade ELA grades with correlations from 0.52 to 0.63 in pre-pandemic cohorts — related
- Combined latent scores are highly predictive of third grade assessment scores in pre-pandemic years, with correlations from 0.67 to 0.82 — related
- Absences remained as strongly related to test scores and GPAs in post-pandemic years as pre-pandemic years — related
- Students with higher spring reading assessment scores in kindergarten through grade 3 also had higher KEI and grade 3 PSSA ELA scores — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
post-pandemic-k2-scores-still-predict-third-grade-outcomes |
title |
Post-pandemic, K-2 scores predict third grade ELA outcomes with smaller but still moderate-to-large correlations (0.30-0.64 for grades; 0.47-0.81 for IAR) |
description |
Post-pandemic, K-2 scores predict third grade ELA outcomes with smaller but still moderate-to-large correlations (0.30-0.64 for grades; 0.47-0.81 for IAR) |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2026 |
recheck_by |
2029 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-08 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — allensworth-2026 |
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