Later cohorts fell off schedule for graduation at earlier ages, but the percentage off schedule by age 16 changed very little¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associationalr2·q2
Currency · newest study 2002 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2007: baselines and conditions change
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q2 i? Cohorts subject to promotion gates were off schedule earlier (e.g., the 1998 cohort was almost one-quarter off schedule by age 13), yet by age 16 the off-schedule percentage stayed around 27-29 percent across cohorts. → Elaine M. Allensworth & Shazia Rafiullah Miller 2002
Evidence¶
Elaine M. Allensworth & Shazia Rafiullah Miller 2002¶
Elaine M. Allensworth & Shazia Rafiullah Miller. (2002). Declining High School Enrollment: An Exploration of Causes. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/declining-high-school-enrollment-exploration-causes
q2 · i? · associational · r2
Cohort progression analysis tracking 13-year-old cohorts from 1991 through 1998 (Section III, Figure 6). The report concludes "there was very little change in the percentage of students off schedule for graduation at age 16," though earlier cohorts fell behind at younger ages.
"by age 16, 27 percent of the 1991 cohort was off schedule for gradua- tion. This compares to 29 percent of the 1992, 1993 and 1994 cohorts, 28 percent of the 1995 cohort, and 29 percent of the 1996, 1997, and 1998 cohorts."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- Students delayed by promotion gates recovered on-schedule status more easily than those delayed by course failure — related
- Dropout rates at age 17 remained at prepolicy levels for the first two cohorts through the promotion gate, then declined to 25 percent with the fourth cohort — related
- Graduation by age 18 was slightly higher in later cohorts despite earlier off-schedule status — related
- Defining dropout cohorts by age 13 rather than by ninth-grade entry avoids composition bias from the CPS promotion policy's grade retentions — related
- The requirement structure decreased the percentage of graduates completing both chemistry and physics, because mandated earth or environmental science pushed the combination into a fourth year — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
off-schedule-earlier-but-stable-by-age-16 |
title |
Later cohorts fell off schedule for graduation at earlier ages, but the percentage off schedule by age 16 changed very little |
description |
Later cohorts fell off schedule for graduation at earlier ages, but the percentage off schedule by age 16 changed very little |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2002 |
recheck_by |
2007 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-08 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — elaine-m-allensworth-shazia-rafiullah-miller-2002 |
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