Defining dropout cohorts by age 13 rather than by ninth-grade entry avoids composition bias from the CPS promotion policy's grade retentions¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · design r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2001 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Cohorts defined by age are not affected by new patterns of grade retention, unlike ninth-grade-defined cohorts whose composition changed under the 1996 promotion policy. → Elaine Allensworth and John Q. Easton 2001

Evidence¶

Elaine Allensworth and John Q. Easton 2001¶

Elaine Allensworth and John Q. Easton. (2001). Calculating a Cohort Dropout Rate for the Chicago Public Schools: A Technical Research Report. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/calculating-cohort-dropout-rate-chicago-public-schools

q2 · i? · design · r2

Methodological argument based on CPS enrollment and retention records: in 1996 about 1,800 first-year eighth graders were retained, roughly three times the previous year's rate, so about 1,200 students were excluded from the 1996 ninth-grade cohort. This is an analytical/definitional justification, not a tested comparison.

"Defining cohorts by age has several advan- tages. Most importantly, cohorts are not af- fected by the new patterns of grade retention."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• One-year dropout rates confound changing student composition and movement through high school, unlike cohort rates — related
• Over 40 percent of Chicago Public Schools students drop out by age 19, with a slight downward trend across the 1991–1994 cohorts — related
• Retention at the promotion gate increased the likelihood of dropping out by about 8 percentage points by age 17 and 13 points by age 19 — related
• The eighth-grade promotion gate had the largest impact on ninth-grade enrollment, with almost 2,900 fewer students advancing in fall 1998 — related
• The five-year dropout rate for the first cohort fully subject to the CPS promotion policy (1995) continued the slight downward trend, but pre-age-18 patterns do not clearly indicate a change — related
• Eighth-grade retention rates surged from under 2 percent prepolicy to 8.3 percent in the first policy year, peaking at 11.1 percent — related
• Later cohorts fell off schedule for graduation at earlier ages, but the percentage off schedule by age 16 changed very little — related