Student performance declines from freshman to sophomore year, with course failures rising in every subject and attendance declining sharply¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2020 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2025: baselines and conditions change

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Course failure rates increased in every subject from freshman to sophomore year, most in math (5.0 to 7.5 percent), and the share of students with attendance below 80 percent grew from 9.5 to 13.7 percent. → Seeskin 2020 q2 i? Attendance declined more than grades: the proportion of students below 80 percent attendance rose four percentage points, while GPA below 1.5 rose only about one percentage point. → Seeskin 2020 (2)

Evidence¶

Seeskin 2020¶

Seeskin, A., Mahaffie, S., & Usher, A. (2020). The forgotten year: Applying lessons from Freshman success to Sophomore year. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/the-forgotten-year

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Cohort comparison of course failure rates by subject (Figure 5, 2016-17 cohort) shows failures rose in all subjects; "increased most in math, from 5.0 percent for freshmen to 7.5 percent for sophomores." Non-core failures rose from 3.8 to 5.1 percent.

"The course failure rate of the students in this study increased most in math, from 5.0 percent for freshmen to 7.5 percent for sophomores."

Seeskin 2020 (2)¶

Seeskin, A., Mahaffie, S., & Usher, A. (2020). The forgotten year: Applying lessons from Freshman success to Sophomore year. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/the-forgotten-year

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Cohort comparison of attendance distributions (Figure 6, 2014-15 cohort) found a four-percentage-point increase in students below 80 percent attendance: "9.5 percent of freshmen, compared to 13.7 percent of sophomores." GPA below 1.5 rose only marginally (13.3 to 14.4 percent).

"9.5 percent of freshmen, compared to 13.7 percent of sophomores, had attendance rates below 80 percent"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Three freshman warning indicators—off-track status, any course failure, and attendance below 85 percent—identify 70 percent of eventual non-graduates — related
• By the end of sophomore year, 84 percent of eventual non-graduates showed at least one warning indicator — related
• Gains in sophomore performance were unequal: about one in five Latino and Black young men were off-track at the end of sophomore year — related
• Most Chicago freshmen fail at least one course, miss substantial school, or earn below a C average in their first year — related
• Freshman failures clustered in math more than English, and many students failed both core subjects — related
• On-track improvements were accompanied by across-the-board grade gains, not grade inflation from turning Fs into Ds — reports the opposite
• Grade-class membership relates to grade distributions, with failing-poor ratios rising sharply across the five lowest-to-highest Alpha classes — related