Polygenic score predictions of education strengthen as GWAS discovery sample sizes increase¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · quant-synthesis r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2024 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · recheck by 2027: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Across four GWAS published between 2013 and 2022, polygenic score predictions of educational attainment rose from ~2% to ~14% of variance as discovery samples grew from N ~ 130,000 to ~ 3 million. → Wilding 2024

Evidence¶

Wilding 2024¶

Wilding, K., Wright, M., & von Stumm, S. (2024). Using DNA to Predict Education: a Meta-analytic Review. Educational Psychology Review. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10648-024-09928-4

q2 · i? · quant-synthesis · r2

Narrative synthesis of the four GWAS for years spent in education: discovery samples grew from N ~ 130,000 to ~ 3 million, and predictions rose "from ~ 2 to ~ 14% of the variance in educational attainment, a sevenfold increase" (Fig. 1). The article notes the GWAS samples overlap, so they are not independent.

"These findings consolidated that polygenic score predictions for education strengthen as GWAS samples sizes increase, potentially to the point that polygenic score predictions will approximate the heritability estimates from twin studies"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Polygenic scores show a meta-analytic association of ρ = 0.24 with educational achievement
• Polygenic scores based on the Lee et al. (2018) GWAS show a meta-analytic association of ρ = 0.27 with educational attainment
• Polygenic score predictions are reduced in African American relative to European ancestry samples, significantly so only for educational attainment — related
• Sample ancestry significantly moderates polygenic score predictions of educational attainment, with stronger predictions in European-ancestry samples — related
• Only 15% of published polygenic score estimates for education come from non-European ancestry samples, all recruited in the US — related
• Age at assessment and achievement measure moderate polygenic score predictions of educational achievement; the adjusted pooled estimate rises to ρ = 0.50 — related
• Heritability of everyday abilities cannot be extrapolated to expert performance; twins almost never reach elite levels — related