Postdictions of performance are typically more accurate than predictions¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · theoretical r3 · q2
Currency · newest study 2012 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2015: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Judgments made after task completion (postdictions) are typically more accurate than judgments made before it (predictions). → Bol L and Hacker DJ 2012

Evidence¶

Bol L and Hacker DJ 2012¶

Bol L and Hacker DJ (2012) Calibration research: where do we go from here? Front. Psychology 3:229. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2012.00229

q2 · i? · theoretical · r3

Narrative review attributing the finding to Pressley and Ghatala (1990) and Maki and Serra (1992). The review states "postdictions are typically more accurate than predictions" and explains this by familiarity and exposure to the completed task. No effect sizes are printed.

"Another consistent finding is that postdictions are typically more accurate than predictions (Pressley and Ghatala, 1990; Maki and Serra, 1992). This phenomenon makes intuitive sense because a person should be better able to judge how he or she performed after the completion of the task due to familiarity and exposure to the task itself"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Students tend to rely on non-diagnostic cues when judging their own performance, resulting in inaccurate judgments — related
• Global predictions rely on domain-specific self-concept but not on test performance, unlike postdictions — related
• Test performance is the strongest predictor of local and global postdicted judgments after test taking — related
• Self-scoring improves primary students' monitoring accuracy on math problem-solving tasks to near-accurate levels — related
• Three emotion profiles (positive, neutral, negative) differ in prediction and postdiction magnitude and accuracy, with the positive group most overconfident in predictions and least underconfident in postdictions — related