Prepolicy retained students dropped out earlier, but postpolicy retained students showed elevated dropout risk throughout their remaining years rather than at early ages¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · causal r1–r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2004 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Prepolicy retained students were much more likely than other students to drop out and to drop out early. → Allensworth 2004 q2 i? Postpolicy, eighth-grade retention was not associated with a greater hazard of dropping out at ages 15 or 16 than at 17; risk was elevated throughout remaining school years. → Allensworth 2004 (2)

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2004¶

Allensworth, E. (2004). Ending Social Promotion: Dropout Rates in Chicago after Implementation of the Eighth-Grade Promotion Gate. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/ending-social-promotion-dropout-rates-chicago-after-implementation-eighth-grade

q2 · i? · causal · r1

Hazard analysis predicting dropout at each age 15-17, adjusted for achievement, demographics, and school enrollment (Figure 5). Prepolicy retained students dropped out early despite being a very select group.

"Consistent with studies of teacher-initiated retention, prepolicy students who were retained in eighth grade were not only much more likely to drop out of school than other students, but they were also more likely to drop out early."

Allensworth 2004 (2)¶

Allensworth, E. (2004). Ending Social Promotion: Dropout Rates in Chicago after Implementation of the Eighth-Grade Promotion Gate. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/ending-social-promotion-dropout-rates-chicago-after-implementation-eighth-grade

q2 · i? · causal · r2

Postpolicy hazard models show retained students about 3 to 4 percent more likely to drop out at each age than similar postpolicy students. The report notes they did drop out at earlier grades because high school entry was delayed.

"In contrast, postpolicy, eighth-grade retention was not associated with a greater likelihood of dropping out at age 15 or 16 than it was at age 17. Instead, postpolicy students’ like- lihood of dropping out was el- evated throughout their remaining years in school."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Dropouts in more recent CPS cohorts left school at earlier grade levels, with a growing share not going beyond ninth grade — related
• Retention at the promotion gate increased the likelihood of dropping out by about 8 percentage points by age 17 and 13 points by age 19 — related
• The postpolicy retention effect on dropout was smaller than the prepolicy retention relationship, but its systemwide impact was larger — related
• Suspension is associated with long-term harms including higher risk of grade retention, dropout, and juvenile justice involvement — related
• Retention in grades 1-5 increases the odds of dropping out of high school rather than graduating, above propensity to be retained — related