Retention at the promotion gate increased the likelihood of dropping out by about 8 percentage points by age 17 and 13 points by age 19¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · causal r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2004 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Statistical models estimated a significant postpolicy retention effect of 9.9 percentage points on dropping out by age 17, and gate retention raised dropout likelihood about 8 points for a typical retained student. → Allensworth 2004 q2 i? By age 19, students retained by the promotion gate were 13 percentage points more likely to have dropped out than similar nonretained students, a 29 percent increase. → Allensworth 2004 (2)

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2004¶

Allensworth, E. (2004). Ending Social Promotion: Dropout Rates in Chicago after Implementation of the Eighth-Grade Promotion Gate. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/ending-social-promotion-dropout-rates-chicago-after-implementation-eighth-grade

q2 · i? · causal · r2

HLM models using the prepolicy achievement-dropout relationship applied to postpolicy students. Retention from high-stakes testing was estimated to increase dropout probability from 30.8 percent to 38.8 percent for a typical retained student by age 17.

"Statistical models that estimate retention effects using the prepolicy achievement-dropout relationship show a significant postpolicy eighth-grade retention effect on dropping out of 9.9 percentage points"

Allensworth 2004 (2)¶

Allensworth, E. (2004). Ending Social Promotion: Dropout Rates in Chicago after Implementation of the Eighth-Grade Promotion Gate. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/ending-social-promotion-dropout-rates-chicago-after-implementation-eighth-grade

q2 · i? · causal · r2

Event-history modeling of dropout through age 19 excluding the last two postpolicy cohorts, which had not yet reached that age. The report calls this a 29 percent increase in the likelihood of dropping out.

"Modeling dropout rates by age 19, without the last two postpolicy cohorts, produces an estimate that dropout rates among students retained by the promotion gate were 13 percentage points higher than among similar nonretained students"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Defining dropout cohorts by age 13 rather than by ninth-grade entry avoids composition bias from the CPS promotion policy's grade retentions — related
• Eighth-grade retention rates surged from under 2 percent prepolicy to 8.3 percent in the first policy year, peaking at 11.1 percent — related
• Students delayed by promotion gates recovered on-schedule status more easily than those delayed by course failure — related
• Prepolicy retained students dropped out earlier, but postpolicy retained students showed elevated dropout risk throughout their remaining years rather than at early ages — related
• The postpolicy retention effect on dropout was smaller than the prepolicy retention relationship, but its systemwide impact was larger — related
• Nearly a third of eighth graders retained or sent to Transition Centers in 1997 had dropped out by fall 1999, while overall eighth-grade dropout rates stayed stable — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Dropout rates at age 17 remained at prepolicy levels for the first two cohorts through the promotion gate, then declined to 25 percent with the fourth cohort — related
• Dropout intentions increased over the school year among 9th-grade students — related
• Retention in grades 1-5 increases the odds of dropping out of high school rather than graduating, above propensity to be retained — related