The postpolicy retention effect on dropout was smaller than the prepolicy retention relationship, but its systemwide impact was larger¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · causalr2·q2
Currency · newest study 2004 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
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q2 i? Prepolicy retained students' dropout rates were 25.3 percentage points larger than similar nonretained prepolicy students, a much stronger relationship than the postpolicy retention effect. → Allensworth 2004
Evidence¶
Allensworth 2004¶
Allensworth, E. (2004). Ending Social Promotion: Dropout Rates in Chicago after Implementation of the Eighth-Grade Promotion Gate. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/ending-social-promotion-dropout-rates-chicago-after-implementation-eighth-grade
q2 · i? · causal · r2
The same statistical models estimating the postpolicy effect were applied to prepolicy cohorts. The report explains prepolicy retainees were a very select group (less than 2 percent), whereas many more postpolicy students were retained, giving retention a larger total systemwide impact.
"retained students in prepolicy cohorts had dropout rates that were 25.3 percentage points larger than nonretained prepolicy students with similar demographic and achievement characteristics (55.7 percent, compared to 30.4 percent)."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- Retention at the promotion gate increased the likelihood of dropping out by about 8 percentage points by age 17 and 13 points by age 19 — related
- Prepolicy retained students dropped out earlier, but postpolicy retained students showed elevated dropout risk throughout their remaining years rather than at early ages — related
- Systemwide CPS cumulative dropout percentages rose from 8.1 to 33.1 over five years — related
- Dropout intentions increased over the school year among 9th-grade students — related
- Retention in grades 1-5 increases the odds of dropping out of high school rather than graduating, above propensity to be retained — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
postpolicy-retention-effect-smaller-but-larger-impact |
title |
The postpolicy retention effect on dropout was smaller than the prepolicy retention relationship, but its systemwide impact was larger |
description |
The postpolicy retention effect on dropout was smaller than the prepolicy retention relationship, but its systemwide impact was larger |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2004 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-08 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — allensworth-2004 |
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