Studies finding grades less predictive often use restricted samples or weighted or self-reported GPAs, which are less accurate¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · review r? · q2
Currency · newest study 2025 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Divergent conclusions about the predictive power of grades are often attributable to restricted samples (e.g., high-GPA students at very selective schools) and to weighted or self-reported GPAs, which are less accurate. → Key Questions: How important are course grades as predictors of students' future success? 2025

Evidence¶

Key Questions: How important are course grades as predictors of students' future success? 2025¶

Key Questions: How important are course grades as predictors of students' future success? (2025). UChicago Consortium / FutureEd. https://consortium.uchicago.edu

q2 · i? · review · r?

The interview's key takeaways state that "some studies may find different conclusions" because of restricted samples or less-accurate weighted or self-reported GPAs, concluding that how a study is done and what data researchers use matters. No quantitative evidence is printed.

"Some studies may find different conclusions, often because they're looking at a restricted sample (e.g. students with high GPAs going to very selective schools) and/or using weighted or self-reported GPAs, which are less accurate."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Differences in grading practices across teachers and schools are small relative to students' actual academic preparation, and GPAs average out those differences — related
• Contextualized high school GPA had a stronger relationship with college success than contextualized standardized test scores (Bastedo et al., attributed) — related
• Course grades and GPA predict high school and college outcomes better than standardized test scores or coursework — related
• Prior GPA was the best predictor of students' course grade, whether or not students used courseware. — related
• Course grades are more predictive than standardized test scores of high school and college success — related
• Prediction and intervention are different problems: highly predictive features such as prior GPA are often ones an institution cannot change — related