Course grades and GPA predict high school and college outcomes better than standardized test scores or coursework¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · review r? · q2
Currency · newest study 2012 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2015: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? High school grades are stronger and more consistent predictors of college persistence and graduation than entrance exam scores or coursetaking, suggesting grades capture noncognitive attributes beyond content mastery. → Farrington 2012

Evidence¶

Farrington 2012¶

Farrington, C.A., Roderick, M., Allensworth, E., Nagaoka, J., Keyes, T.S., Johnson, D.W., & Beechum, N.O. (2012). Teaching adolescents to become learners. The role of noncognitive factors in shaping school performance: A critical literature review. Chicago: University of Chicago Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/teaching-adolescents-become-learners-role-noncognitive-factors-shaping-school

q2 · i? · review · r?

Review synthesis of predictive studies (Box 1.1), citing University of California data showing high school grades predicted college GPA and graduation better than SAT scores, class rank, and family background. The review attributes the pattern to grades capturing "qualities of motivation and perseverance" and study habits.

"Likewise, high school grades are stronger and more consistent predictors of college persistence and graduation than college entrance examination scores or high school coursetaking (Geiser & Santelices, 2007; Roderick, Nagaoka, & Allensworth, 2006)."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Contextualized high school GPA had a stronger relationship with college success than contextualized standardized test scores (Bastedo et al., attributed) — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• Ninth-grade GPA strongly predicts on-time high school graduation, with an especially large gap between F and D students — related
• Studies finding grades less predictive often use restricted samples or weighted or self-reported GPAs, which are less accurate — related
• Attending a selective exam-entry high school yields no significant academic benefits and lowers 11th-grade GPA relative to observationally similar peers elsewhere — related
• Ninth-grade GPA predicts college enrollment and one-year college persistence in linear, incremental patterns — related
• Attendance and effort, more than test scores or demographics, drive course grades, GPA, course failure, graduation, and college readiness — related
• Prior GPA was the best predictor of students' course grade, whether or not students used courseware. — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Students' survey reports of their school experiences predict later academic and well-being outcomes including attendance, grades, test scores, graduation, college enrollment, and well-being — related
• The College Experiences Survey was conducted as part of an evaluation of factors associated with college persistence and attrition — related
• High school GPA is a better predictor of college graduation than standardized test scores, yet districts continue to rely on test-based readiness benchmarks — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Ninth grade GPAs are the single most predictive indicator of high school graduation, college enrollment, and degree completion for all English Learner groups — related
• GPA combined with test scores was the best prediction of college degree attainment for all English Learner groups, but the test-score relationship partly reflects school composition — related
• Course grades are more predictive than standardized test scores of high school and college success — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• Students' grades are a more important predictor of college enrollment than ACT scores, which mainly constrain the selectivity of colleges attended — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• High school GPA predicts four-year college graduation more strongly than achievement test scores among Chicago graduates — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Combining GPA or course failure rates with attendance provides the best prediction of high school graduation for most EL groups, while GPA plus test scores best predicts college degree attainment — related
• Increasing selectivity of teacher preparation entrance exams is not mutually exclusive with increasing diversity — nine states that raised selectivity saw education student diversity increase. — related
• High school GPA is the strongest predictor of college admission, persistence, and graduation, more than ACT or SAT scores — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Composite accountability indicators such as A–F letter grades fail to capture the cognitive and noncognitive competencies of deeper learning and college and career readiness — related
• The quality and intensity of the high school curriculum is reported to be the single most important factor in college success — reports the opposite
• Prediction and intervention are different problems: highly predictive features such as prior GPA are often ones an institution cannot change — related
• The parental involvement–achievement relationship is stronger for global achievement indicators (e.g., GPA) than for subject-specific indicators (e.g., math grade) — related
• Enrollment in the mission-specific general education courses was associated with increased persistence across student types, likely because enrollment signals intention to complete a degree at the institution — related
• College readiness is best understood as a property of interactions between students and the college context, not only individual skills — related
• Across the college-going population, course grades are consistently the strongest indicators of students' general academic preparation — related
• Demanding excellence for the many rather than the few is questionable, and academic excellence defined as test success is too narrow — related
• Standardized test batteries are poor predictors of counselor trainee success — related
• Social and temporal comparison effects are stronger in studies using grades rather than test scores as achievement indicators — related