Fewer than 60 percent of retained third and sixth graders in 1998 and 1999 raised their test scores to the promotional cutoff even with an extra January chance to pass¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · causal r2 · q3
Currency · newest study 2004 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q3 i? Most retained third and sixth graders in the 1998 and 1999 cohorts failed to reach the promotional cutoff during their retained year, even with a mid-year test opportunity. → Nagaoka 2004

Evidence¶

Nagaoka 2004¶

Nagaoka, J., & Roderick, M. (2004). Ending Social Promotion: The Effects of Retention. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/ending-social-promotion-effects-retention

q3 · i? · causal · r2

Descriptive tracking of retained third and sixth grade cohorts (Table 4-1) shows only around 60 percent met the promotional cutoff; in the 1997 cohort only 39 percent of third graders and 42 percent of sixth graders passed by May of the retained year.

"The fact that only around 60 percent of retained third and sixth graders in the 1998 and 1999 cohorts were able to meet the promotional cutoff, even with an extra chance to pass in January, seems disappointing."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Mid-year promotions after retention neither helped nor harmed students' tested achievement in basic skills — related
• Summer Bridge produced short-term test-score gains and allowed more students to meet promotion cutoffs, particularly among sixth and eighth graders — related
• Neither promotion nor retention significantly closed the achievement gap of low-achieving students close to the cutoff, and the lowest achievers deteriorated further — related
• Retained sixth graders had lower achievement growth than promoted low-achieving counterparts — related
• Passing rates under the Chicago promotional policy increased in all three grades from 1997 to 1999, mostly during the school year rather than Summer Bridge — related
• Students who failed both reading and math made up the majority of retained students, and fewer than 20% of them passed both subjects in Summer Bridge — related
• Only 43% of retained third graders and 47% of retained sixth graders met the test criteria by summer 1998 despite four chances, yet over two-thirds were promoted the next year largely due to waivers — related
• Retained students showed smaller three-year achievement gains than previously socially promoted students, though Rasch adjustment erased the gap for once-retained third graders — related
• Retained students struggled in their second time through the promotional policy, with only about half meeting cutoffs and eighth graders doing worst — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Retained third and sixth graders were placed in special education at about three times the rate of comparable low-achieving students — related
• Early-grade retention rose after the policy, and roughly 20 percent of first and second graders who were retained experienced a second retention in third grade — related