Children's wait-times on sustained delay-of-gratification tasks reflect beliefs about environmental reliability in addition to self-control capacity¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · causal r2 · q2–q3
Currency · newest study 2013 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2016: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q3 i? Because manipulating experimenter reliability changed wait-times, wait-times cannot be attributed solely to self-control capacity differences. → Kidd 2013 q2 i? The authors conclude that an unreliable worldview, in addition to self-control, may be causally related to later life outcomes. → Kidd 2013 (2)

Evidence¶

Kidd 2013¶

Kidd, C., Palmeri, H., & Aslin, R. N. (2013). Rational snacking: Young children's decision-making on the marshmallow task is moderated by beliefs about environmental reliability. Cognition, 126(1), 109-114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2012.08.004

q3 · i? · causal · r2

Authors' interpretation of their randomized experiment: the condition effect (reliable vs unreliable) is inconsistent with self-control deficiency as the sole cause, since such deficiencies should appear in both conditions. This is the authors' reasoning, not an additional measurement.

"If self-control capacity differences were the primary causal mechanism implicated in children's wait-times, then information about the reliability of the environment should not have affected them. If deficiencies in self-control caused children to eat treats early, then one would expect such deficiencies to be present in the reliable condition as well as in the unreliable condition."

Kidd 2013 (2)¶

Kidd, C., Palmeri, H., & Aslin, R. N. (2013). Rational snacking: Young children's decision-making on the marshmallow task is moderated by beliefs about environmental reliability. Cognition, 126(1), 109-114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2012.08.004

q2 · i? · causal · r2

The authors' own hedge in the Discussion: their data do not show self-control is irrelevant, only that attributing most variance and the longitudinal correlations to self-control alone is premature. No effect size is printed for this interpretive claim.

"our data do not demonstrate that self-control is irrelevant in explaining the variance in children's wait-times on the original marshmallow task studies. They do, however, strongly indicate that it is premature to conclude that most of the observed variance—and the longitudinal correlation between wait-times and later life outcomes—is due to differences in individuals' self-control capacities."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Age and gender did not significantly predict marshmallow-task wait-times in this sample when controlling for condition — related
• Children in the reliable condition were significantly more likely to wait the full 15 min than children in the unreliable condition (64.3% vs 7.1%) — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Children in the reliable condition waited significantly longer on the marshmallow task than children in the unreliable condition (p < 0.0005) — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Early ability to delay gratification predicts later academic and social outcomes, but the association is weaker and more context-dependent than originally reported. — related
• Mood-related measures (contentedness, smiling, fidgetiness) did not vary systematically across the reliable and unreliable conditions — related
• Percentage of time distracting visual attention away from the reward predicts success on delay-of-gratification tasks in two- and three-year-olds — related
• Older two- and three-year-olds have lower odds of failing delay-of-gratification tasks — related