Analysis of typical summer learning patterns of five million students as a basis for COVID-19 loss projections¶

Element · All elements
Evidence · 3 claims (3 for) · 2 studies (2 associational), q1–q2 · 0 of 2 report an effect size · 3 claims rest on one study

Description¶

The paper bases its COVID-19 learning-loss projections partly on "analyses of typical summer learning patterns of five million students," combining this empirical basis with "estimates from prior literature" on the impacts of missing school. The summer-pattern analysis supplies typical seasonal learning trajectories against which closure-period learning is projected. The page describes this as one of the two inputs, alongside prior-literature estimates, used to produce "a series of projections of COVID-19-related learning loss."

Design Implications¶

Context¶

Requirements¶

• Requires typical summer learning pattern data from a large student sample, as the paper uses analyses of five million students' summer patterns

Constraints¶

• The projections are estimates of potential loss, not measurements of actual pandemic-era achievement

Target Learners¶

• K-12 students in the United States affected by COVID-19 school closures

Target Learning Goals¶

• Reading and mathematics achievement relative to typical school-year learning gains

Claims¶

• Summer learning loss patterns are used to project the potential impact of COVID-19 school closures on student academic achievement [+W]
• Projected fall 2020 mathematics gains for returning students are approximately 37 to 50% of a typical school year's learning gains [+W]
• Projected fall 2020 reading gains for returning students are approximately 63 to 68% of a typical school year's learning gains [+W]

Related Elements¶

• Technical appendix documenting the projection methodology of the COVID-19 slide white paper
• NWEA research brief 'The COVID-19 slide' with associated working paper, presentation, and technical appendix
• NWEA COVID-19 learning-loss research series on seasonal learning patterns and equity
• The COVID-19 slide research brief and technical appendix on summer learning loss and school closures
• NWEA seminar presentation projecting COVID-19 learning loss and 2020-21 test score effects

Examples¶

• Prepare for fall 2020 by supporting academically behind students and further differentiating instruction

Key Sources¶

• Kuhfeld, M., Soland, J., Tarasawa, B., Johnson, A., Ruzek, E., & Liu, J. (2020). Projecting the potential impact of COVID-19 school closures on academic achievement. Educational Researcher, 49(8), 549–565. https://doi.org/10.3102/0013189X20965918