Use the same early warning and college readiness indicator systems for English Learners as for other students, but apply subgroup-specific risk thresholds and targeted supports¶

Strategy · All strategies
Evidence · 2 claims (1 for, 1 mixed) · 2 studies (2 associational), q2 · 0 of 2 report an effect size · 2 claims rest on one study

Description¶

The study's policy takeaway is that "Schools do not need different systems of early warning and college readiness indicators for English Learners," because the best indicators are the same for most students, but the at-risk threshold differs for active ELs in high school. Recommended supports include improving former ELs' GPAs toward 3.0, monitoring late-arriving ELs through their first two years, prioritizing attendance and course passing over English proficiency for long-term ELs without IEPs, and improving attendance for long-term ELs with IEPs.

Design Implications¶

Context¶

Requirements¶

• Administrative data on course grades, attendance, and standardized test scores, plus ACCESS assessment and National Student Clearinghouse data as used in the study

Constraints¶

• The threshold at which students become at risk differs for active English Learners in high school; outcomes were harder to predict for long-term ELs with IEPs

Target Learners¶

• High school English Learners (former, long-term with and without IEPs, and late-arriving)

Target Learning Goals¶

• High school graduation, college enrollment, and college degree completion

Claims¶

• Ninth grade GPAs are the single most predictive indicator of high school graduation, college enrollment, and degree completion for all English Learner groups [~W] — (also cited [+W])
• Indicator performance differs across EL subgroups: former and late-arriving ELs had stronger ninth-grade GPAs and attendance than never ELs, while long-term ELs without IEPs had much lower GPAs [+W]

Related Strategies¶

• Tailor indicator-based support by English Learner subgroup: raise former ELs' GPAs toward 3.0, monitor late-arriving ELs' grades and attendance through tenth grade, prioritize attendance and course passing for long-term ELs, and attendance for long-term ELs with IEPs
• Weekly gradebook monitoring with a 70 percent threshold and templated early-warning interventions

Examples¶

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Key Sources¶

• Allensworth, E.M., de la Torre, M., Franklin, K., & Xu, J. (2025). Predictive power of grades and other indicators for English Learners. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://edworkingpapers.com/ai25-1241