Ninth grade GPAs are the single most predictive indicator of high school graduation, college enrollment, and degree completion for all English Learner groups¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2025 · checked against its sources 2026-10-13 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person
Evidence quality · No study behind this claim is a peer-reviewed article with a DOI: it rests on a source with no registered publication record (a web page, book or unpublished report). It is kept because 4 design pages cite it; treat it as a lead to check, not an established finding.

Subclaims¶

q2 i? GPAs predicted high school graduation, college enrollment, and degree completion better than attendance, course failure rates, English proficiency level, test scores, suspensions, and background characteristics for all English Learner groups. → Allensworth 2025

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2025¶

Allensworth, E.M., de la Torre, M., Franklin, K., & Xu, J. (2025). Identifying Indicators to Support Educational Attainment for Different Groups of English Learners in High School. (Working Paper). Providence, RI: Annenberg EdExchange. https://edworkingpapers.com/ai25-1241

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Logistic regression analyses of administrative records and National Student Clearinghouse data for 185,441 CPS first-time ninth graders compared McFadden pseudo-R2 across models to identify the best predictors. The study reports that "GPAs were the most predictive" of all three attainment outcomes, followed by attendance and course failures.

"GPAs were the most predictive of high school graduation, college enrollment, and degree completion for all English Learner groups, followed by attendance and course failure rates."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Combining GPA with attendance, or course failure rates with attendance, gives the best prediction of high school graduation for most English Learner groups but not long-term English Learners with IEPs — related
• Course performance indicators predict ELL graduation better than ELL-specific indicators such as proficiency level or education interruptions — related
• Course grades and GPA predict high school and college outcomes better than standardized test scores or coursework — related
• GPA combined with test scores was the best prediction of college degree attainment for all English Learner groups, but the test-score relationship partly reflects school composition — related
• Combining GPA or course failure rates with attendance provides the best prediction of high school graduation for most EL groups, while GPA plus test scores best predicts college degree attainment — related
• High school GPA is a better predictor of college graduation than standardized test scores, yet districts continue to rely on test-based readiness benchmarks — related
• Ninth-grade GPA strongly predicts on-time high school graduation, with an especially large gap between F and D students — related
• Attendance and effort, more than test scores or demographics, drive course grades, GPA, course failure, graduation, and college readiness — related
• Attending higher-rated schools (CPS School Quality Rating Policy) is associated with better math, reading, and English proficiency test outcomes for ELs — related
• College readiness is best understood as a property of interactions between students and the college context, not only individual skills — related
• Across the college-going population, course grades are consistently the strongest indicators of students' general academic preparation — a broader claim this one bears on
• In a Chicago middle-grades study, the combination of grades and attendance provided the best prediction of high school on-track rates, and adding test scores and grit measures did not further improve prediction — related