High school GPA is a better predictor of college graduation than standardized test scores, yet districts continue to rely on test-based readiness benchmarks¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2018 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Research evidence indicates GPA predicts college graduation better than test scores, creating tension with district test-score-based readiness policy. → Roderick 2018

Evidence¶

Roderick 2018¶

Roderick, M., Holsapple, M., Clark, K., & Kelley-Kemple, T. (2018). From High School to the Future: Delivering on the Dream of College Graduation. University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/high-school-future-delivering-dream-college-graduation

q2 · i? · associational · r2

The report identifies a policy-research tension: CPS retained test-score benchmarks (SAT 1010, previously ACT 20) despite evidence favoring GPA. Even a 4.0-GPA graduate has just a 50 percent chance of enrolling in and graduating from a four-year college in four years; a 26-ACT graduate has a one-in-three chance.

"there is a substantial disconnect between a reliance on standardized test scores as indicators of college readiness, and the research evidence that a student’s GPA is a better predictor of college graduation than test scores."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Course grades and GPA predict high school and college outcomes better than standardized test scores or coursework — a broader claim this one bears on
• High school GPA predicts four-year college graduation more strongly than achievement test scores among Chicago graduates — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• Among students with the same ACT scores (21-23), college graduation rates are 77 percent for those with a high school GPA of 3.5 or higher versus 40 percent for those with a GPA of 2.0-2.4 — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Attendance and effort, more than test scores or demographics, drive course grades, GPA, course failure, graduation, and college readiness — related
• Ninth-grade GPA strongly predicts on-time high school graduation, with an especially large gap between F and D students — related
• ACT scores weakly predict college graduation, and the school-level variance in the ACT slope (0.192) exceeds the average slope (0.129), so school effects introduce more noise than the ACT signal — related
• GPAs are the most predictive single indicator of high school graduation, college enrollment, and degree completion for all English Learner groups, followed by attendance and course failure rates — related
• Districts face validity, reliability, comparability, and accountability-tension challenges in assessing future-ready skills — related
• High school GPA is the strongest predictor of college admission, persistence, and graduation, more than ACT or SAT scores — related
• Among Chicago graduates who enter four-year colleges, high school GPA is the strongest predictor of graduating within six years — related
• Across the college-going population, course grades are consistently the strongest indicators of students' general academic preparation — related