Arizona high school graduates are predicted to earn $271,040 more over a lifetime than dropouts, net of ability and motivation adjustments¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2014 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2019: baselines and conditions change

Subclaims¶

q2 i? High school dropouts in Arizona are predicted to earn $233,260 over a lifetime versus $504,300 for graduates adjusting for college enrollment, a gain of $271,040 at age 18. → How Arizona's Dropout Crisis Affects Communities 2014

Evidence¶

How Arizona's Dropout Crisis Affects Communities 2014¶

How Arizona's Dropout Crisis Affects Communities, Creates Economic Losses for the State of Arizona. (2014). A Project of WestEd. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED559628

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Section 4.1 uses Arizona CPS data (2009-2013) with ACS data (2006-2010) as a validity check, building lifetime earnings profiles adjusted for labor force participation, health benefits, ability, and productivity growth, discounted to present value at age 18.

"high school dropouts are predicted to earn $233,260. By contrast, high school graduates (adjusting for college enrollment rates) are predicted to earn $504,300 (net of ability/motivation). Relative to a dropout across Arizona, this amounts to a gain of $271,040 at age 18."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Each Arizona high school dropout imposes a lifetime social loss of $421,280, totaling $7.6 billion per annual cohort of 18,100 dropouts — related
• The lifetime fiscal loss per Arizona high school dropout is $135,730 across all levels of government, or $2.5 billion per cohort — related
• Each disconnected youth in Arizona incurs a lifetime social loss of $695,090 and fiscal loss of $234,480, totaling $127.3 billion social and $43.0 billion fiscal per cohort of 183,200 — related
• Simulations of closing Black-Hispanic-White gaps in educational participation project increased net public benefits of $20.2 to $72.6 billion per year. — related
• Educational opportunity and achievement gaps impose large societal costs, including an estimated $156 billion loss in tax revenues and income per yearly cohort of nongraduates — related
• The future lifetime loss from disconnected youth is three times greater than the immediate loss during the youth years — related
• The report's loss estimates are conservative because they exclude health, psychological, family, community, and broader societal costs that cannot be monetized — related