Chicago graduation rates improved steadily since the early 1990s except for the first two cohorts subject to the eighth-grade promotion standard, and age-16 dropout rates declined for the last five years¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2005 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2008: local conditions change quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Graduation rates improved steadily since the early 1990s, excepting the first two cohorts under the eighth-grade promotion standards. → Allensworth 2005 q2 i? Dropout rates at age 16 declined for the last five years, which the authors read as suggesting continued graduation improvement. → Allensworth 2005 (2)

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2005¶

Allensworth, E. (2005). Graduation and Dropout Trends in Chicago: A look at cohorts of students from 1991 through 2004, Report Highlights. Consortium on Chicago School Research, University of Chicago. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/graduation-and-dropout-trends-chicago-look-cohorts-students-1991-2004

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Trend analysis of age-13 cohorts followed to age 19, a method the report states is not affected by changes in grade progression. The figure shows graduation by age 19 rising from 37.6 percent (1991 cohort) to 54.0 percent (2001 cohort).

"Graduation rates have been improving steadily since the early 1990s, with the exception of the first two cohorts of students subject to the eighth-grade promo- tion standards."

Allensworth 2005 (2)¶

Allensworth, E. (2005). Graduation and Dropout Trends in Chicago: A look at cohorts of students from 1991 through 2004, Report Highlights. Consortium on Chicago School Research, University of Chicago. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/graduation-and-dropout-trends-chicago-look-cohorts-students-1991-2004

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Cohort trend analysis printing age-16 dropout rates falling from 16.4 percent to 11.1 percent across the most recent cohorts. The authors' forward-looking interpretation that graduation rates will continue to improve is stated as a suggestion, not a tested result.

"For the last five years, dropout rates at age 16 have been declining, which suggests that graduation rates will continue to improve for the next several years."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Dropout rates at age 17 remained at prepolicy levels for the first two cohorts through the promotion gate, then declined to 25 percent with the fourth cohort — related
• Over 40 percent of Chicago Public Schools students drop out by age 19, with a slight downward trend across the 1991–1994 cohorts — related
• Dropouts in more recent CPS cohorts left school at earlier grade levels, with a growing share not going beyond ninth grade — related
• Judging school improvement requires reading learning gain trends and output trends simultaneously, since either trend monitored alone can mislead — related
• Graduation by age 18 was slightly higher in later cohorts despite earlier off-schedule status — related
• CPS graduation rates increased by 22.4 percentage points over 16 years, from 52.4 percent among students who turned 19 in 1998 to 74.8 percent in 2014 — a broader claim this one bears on
• The five-year dropout rate for the first cohort fully subject to the CPS promotion policy (1995) continued the slight downward trend, but pre-age-18 patterns do not clearly indicate a change — related
• Chicago Public Schools dropout rates remained high, with over 40 percent of students dropping out by age 19 — related
• About 54 percent of Chicago Public Schools students graduated from CPS by age 19 for the 1998 age-13 cohort and by the fourth year for the 1999 freshman cohort — related
• The rise in diploma earning came from declining dropout rates, which fell from 35 to 11 percent, not from declines in other outcomes — related