Freshman on-track students are over three times as likely to graduate in four years as off-track students in CPS¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 3 studies · 1 causal r2, 1 associational r3, 1 design r2 · q2–q3
Currency · newest study 2021 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 3 of 3 entries) · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q3 i? Among students entering a CPS high school in 1999, on-track students were more than three and one-half times as likely to graduate in four years (81 percent vs. 22 percent). → Allensworth 2005

q2 i? A ninth-grader who was On-Track was three and one-half times more likely to graduate in four years than an off-track student. → Pitcher 2016

q2 i? Students on-track at the end of ninth grade were 3.5 times more likely to graduate than students who were off-track. → Roderick 2021

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2005¶

Allensworth, E. M., & Easton, J. Q. (2005). The On-Track Indicator as a Predictor of High School Graduation. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/track-indicator-predictor-high-school-graduation

q3 · i? · associational · r3

Observational analysis of CPS longitudinal student records for the September 1999 entering cohort, reported with Figure 2. The report states "A full 81 percent of the students on-track at the end of freshman year graduated" versus 22 percent of off-track students; five-year rates were 85 percent versus 28 percent.

"A full 81 percent of the students on-track at the end of freshman year graduated from high school in 2003, four years after beginning high school; however, only 22 percent of the off-track students graduated in four years."

Pitcher 2016¶

Pitcher, M. A., Duncan, S. J., Nagaoka, J., Moeller, E., Dickerson, L., & Beechum, N. O. (2016). The Network for College Success: A Capacity-Building Model for School Improvement. University of Chicago. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/network-college-success-capacity-building-model-school-improvement

q2 · i? · design · r2

The paper reports, citing the UChicago Consortium's 2007 report What Matters for On-Track, that the indicator was validated as a much stronger graduation predictor than eighth-grade test scores and demographics. The comparison is reported second-hand; no effect size is printed here.

"The report revealed that a ninth-grader who was On-Track was three and one-half times more likely to graduate from high school in four years than an off-track student."

Roderick 2021¶

Roderick, M., & Kelley-Kemple, T., with Johnson, D. W., & Ryan, S. (2021). The Preventable Failure: Improvements in High School Graduation Rates when High Schools Focus on the Ninth-Grade Year. University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/the-preventable-failure

q2 · i? · causal · r2

Consortium analysis of CPS cohort data reports that in 2005, 40 percent of first-time ninth-graders were off-track and "only 22 percent of these students graduated four years later," versus 81 percent of on-track students. The article reports the 3.5-times ratio but no standardized effect size.

"In 2005, 40 percent of CPS first-time ninth-graders were off-track at the end of ninth grade and only 22 percent of these students graduated four years later. In a dramatic contrast, 81 percent of students who were on-track at the end of ninth grade graduated within four years."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Ninth-grade on-track status predicts graduation more strongly than prior achievement, with a 55 percentage point gap after controls — related
• Freshman OnTrack remains a strong predictor of high school graduation even as on-track rates have risen — related
• The freshman on-track indicator predicts five-year graduation equally or more strongly for students with learning disabilities, mild cognitive disabilities or emotional disturbances than for students without disabilities, with on-track students two to six times more likely to graduate — related
• Sophomore OnTrack rose from 61 to 85 percent and predicts graduation, but 30 percent of non-graduates were on-track as sophomores — related
• Freshman OnTrack improvements were largest in the lowest-performing schools, with bottom-quartile schools gaining 33 percentage points — related
• Most students needing Algebra I credit recovery failed multiple ninth-grade courses and few were on track to graduate — related
• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose from 58 to 89 percent between 2007 and 2017 while graduation rates rose 19 percentage points — related
• Students off track for graduation after ninth grade are less than half as likely to graduate than their on-track peers — related
• Students off track for graduation after ninth grade are less than half as likely to graduate than their on-track peers, with disproportionate impacts on Black and Latino students — related
• Students on track in ninth grade were four times more likely than off-track peers to graduate high school — related
• 71 percent of CCSD 8th graders were on track for graduation at the end of 9th grade in 2015/16 — related
• Bronxdale students outperformed comparison-group, borough, and city high schools on graduation rates and on-track credit indicators in 2017–18 — related
• Ninth-grade on-track ELL students in Chicago were up to 3.5 times more likely to graduate than off-track students — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Non-core course failures in ninth grade were associated with decreases in four-year graduation rates similar to core course failures — related
• Students show signs of dropout risk early in high school, and schools that reach out in the ninth-grade year can keep them on track to graduate — related
• The report treats freshman on-track status as an early indicator correlated with later graduation and dropout — a broader claim this one bears on
• On-track rates after ninth grade rose from 42.2 to 50.6 percent, with slightly less than half the adjusted improvement attributable to better-prepared entering students — related
• Chicago's graduation-rate improvements have been credited to changed ninth-grade dropout-prevention practices triggered by on-track accountability and real-time data reports, and the review states accountability by itself was not sufficient — related
• About 54 percent of Chicago Public Schools students graduated from CPS by age 19 for the 1998 age-13 cohort and by the fourth year for the 1999 freshman cohort — related