Freshman OnTrack improvements were largest in the lowest-performing schools, with bottom-quartile schools gaining 33 percentage points¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · causal r1 · q2
Currency · newest study 2021 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? High schools in the bottom quartile of Freshman OnTrack rates in 2005 improved from 45 percent on-track to 78 percent by 2013, an increase of 33 percentage points. → Roderick 2021

Evidence¶

Roderick 2021¶

Roderick, M., & Kelley-Kemple, T., with Johnson, D. W., & Ryan, S. (2021). The Preventable Failure: Improvements in High School Graduation Rates when High Schools Focus on the Ninth-Grade Year. University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/the-preventable-failure

q2 · i? · causal · r1

Figure 4 analysis comparing 2005 and 2013 on-track rates by school performance quartile shows bottom-quartile schools rose from 45 to 78 percent on-track, "an increase of 33 percentage points." Descriptive district data; no effect size printed.

"In those high schools with rates that were in the bottom performing quartile in 2005, less than one-half (45 percent) of ninth-graders ended ninth grade on-track for graduation. Yet, by 2013, 78 percent of ninth-graders in these schools were on-track, an increase of 33 percentage points."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose 25 percentage points, from 64 percent in 2003 to 89 percent in 2017 — related
• Freshman OnTrack remains a strong predictor of high school graduation even as on-track rates have risen — related
• Ninth-graders who are on-track are 3.5 times more likely to graduate than those who are off-track — related
• Freshman OnTrack rates improved most among the highest-risk students, including Black and Latinx young men and the lowest-achieving entrants — related
• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose from 58 to 89 percent between 2007 and 2017 while graduation rates rose 19 percentage points — a broader claim this one bears on
• Ninth-grade on-track status predicts graduation more strongly than prior achievement, with a 55 percentage point gap after controls — related
• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose 24 percentage points, from 64 percent for the Class of 2006 to 88 percent for the Class of 2019 — a broader claim this one bears on
• Districtwide ninth-grade on-track rates rose 25 percentage points between 2007 and 2013 across racial, gender, and achievement subgroups — related
• On-track rates after ninth grade rose from 42.2 to 50.6 percent, with slightly less than half the adjusted improvement attributable to better-prepared entering students — related
• Citywide freshman on-track rates improved from 48 to 58 percent over a decade, with declines tied to increased course-taking — related
• On-Track gains were largest in the lowest-performing schools and among African American and Latino males — related
• On-track gains were largest for students with the lowest incoming skills and for African American males — related
• In the decade or so to 2017, Chicago Public Schools saw large rises in freshman on-track rates (2006 to 2017), graduation, and college enrollment, with the greatest on-track increases among Black and Latino males — related