Attending a match college raises simulated four-year graduation probability by 13 percentage points for CPS students with access to very selective colleges, but college choice has little impact for students with low qualifications¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2018 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Eliminating undermatch yields a 13-point graduation gain for very selective-access students but only about 5 points districtwide. → Roderick 2018 q2 i? More than 70 percent of CPS graduates have qualifications so low their four-year degree probability is under 10 percent even with a better college choice. → Roderick 2018 (2)

Evidence¶

Roderick 2018¶

Roderick, M., Holsapple, M., Clark, K., & Kelley-Kemple, T. (2018). From High School to the Future: Delivering on the Dream of College Graduation. University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/high-school-future-delivering-dream-college-graduation

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Simulation 3 (n=36,609 four-year college-goers, classes of 2003-09) modeling elimination of undermatch: districtwide graduation would rise about 5 percentage points, with gains concentrated among very selective-access students (13 points per the report title).

"When considering all CPS college-goers, ensuring that no students undermatched could lead to a 5-point increase in their four-year college graduation rate."

Roderick 2018 (2)¶

Roderick, M., Holsapple, M., Clark, K., & Kelley-Kemple, T. (2018). From High School to the Future: Delivering on the Dream of College Graduation. University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/high-school-future-delivering-dream-college-graduation

q2 · i? · associational · r2

The report finds college choice has little impact on graduation for low-qualification students: even a better choice leaves very little chance of graduating. For students with somewhat-selective access, avoiding underperforming colleges matters most, with local college graduation rates ranging from 2 to almost 50 percent.

"More than 70 percent of CPS graduates in our sample have academic qualifications so low that their probability of earning a four-year degree is less than 10 percent."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Undermatch occurs when students attend a college less selective than their high school academic achievement would allow — related
• Escaping a bottom-tier school raises four-year graduation rates, by 10 percentage points for top-tier schools and 3 for mid-tier schools — related
• College undermatch is widespread among CPS students at all qualification levels, with only 27 percent of selective-access graduates matching — related
• Ensuring a good match between students and the colleges in which they enroll significantly increases a student's chance of graduating — a broader claim this one bears on
• Only CPS graduates with access to very selective colleges (above 3.3 GPA and ACT 26+) have four-year college graduation prospects exceeding 50 percent — related
• U.S. teachers earned only 77% of what other college graduates earned in 2021, even after adjusting for the work year — related
• Nearly half (49.6 percent) of low-income students under-match into colleges less selective than their credentials warrant, and under-matched students are substantially less likely to graduate — related
• The modal post-graduation outcome for CPS graduates with very low college qualifications is neither working nor in school — related