Only CPS graduates with access to very selective colleges (above 3.3 GPA and ACT 26+) have four-year college graduation prospects exceeding 50 percent¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2018 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Fewer than 10 percent of CPS graduates 2003-09 had qualifications granting access to colleges where graduation rates exceed 50 percent. → Roderick 2018

Evidence¶

Roderick 2018¶

Roderick, M., Holsapple, M., Clark, K., & Kelley-Kemple, T. (2018). From High School to the Future: Delivering on the Dream of College Graduation. University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/high-school-future-delivering-dream-college-graduation

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Analysis of CPS graduating classes of 2003-09 (n=112,096): students with GPAs above 3.3 and ACT 26+ were the only group with greater than 50 percent four-year graduation prospects; average four-year graduation was below 10 percent for graduates with GPAs below 2.5 and ACT below 18.

"This analysis finds only a small portion of CPS college-goers—those with an average combination of above a 3.3 unweighted GPA and an ACT score of 26 and above—have four-year graduation prospects that exceed 50 percent."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• CPS graduates' academic qualifications improved steadily from 2003 to 2015, with districtwide ACT rising from 16.97 to 18.81 and GPA from 2.16 to 2.56 — related
• Attending a match college raises simulated four-year graduation probability by 13 percentage points for CPS students with access to very selective colleges, but college choice has little impact for students with low qualifications — related
• The modal post-graduation outcome for CPS graduates with very low college qualifications is neither working nor in school — related
• CPS graduates with higher ACT scores had higher overall and four-year enrollment rates, and at least an ACT score of 18 gave at least a 50 percent probability of four-year enrollment — related
• Increasing high school GPA by 0.4 points has a larger impact on four-year college graduation than increasing ACT by 2 points for CPS students of all academic qualifications — related
• Nearly two-thirds of graduates from academically advanced programs graduate with access to a selective or very selective four-year college — related
• College undermatch is widespread among CPS students at all qualification levels, with only 27 percent of selective-access graduates matching — related
• CPS graduates' qualifications improved: students graduating with at least a 3.0 core GPA rose from 21 to 32 percent between 2006 and 2015 — related