College undermatch is widespread among CPS students at all qualification levels, with only 27 percent of selective-access graduates matching¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q3
Currency · newest study 2011 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q3 i? Among CPS graduates with access to selective colleges, only 27 percent matched or overmatched in their college enrollment, and undermatch occurs at all levels of qualifications. → Roderick 2011

Evidence¶

Roderick 2011¶

Roderick, M., Coca, V., & Nagaoka, J. (2011). Potholes on the Road to College: High School Effects in Shaping Urban Students' Participation in College Application, Four-year College Enrollment, and College Match. Sociology of Education, 84(3), 178-211. https://doi.org/10.1177/0038040711411280

q3 · i? · associational · r2

Descriptive cross-tabulation (Table 2, N=4,317) comparing students' college access selectivity (from ACT, GPA, AP/IB) to actual enrollment selectivity using Barron's ratings. Only 38 percent of very-selective-access students enrolled in a very selective college (a match).

"Graduates with access to selective colleges were actually less likely to match or overmatch (27 percent) than graduates with access to very selective colleges."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• College mismatch is common among Chicago graduates: only 38 percent of the most qualified students enrolled in a match college, and many mismatch by enrolling in two-year colleges or not enrolling — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• Attending a match college raises simulated four-year graduation probability by 13 percentage points for CPS students with access to very selective colleges, but college choice has little impact for students with low qualifications — related
• Undermatch among CPS four-year college-goers rose from 42.7 percent in 2003 to 57.7 percent in 2013 before rebounding after 2013 — related
• Undermatch occurs when students attend a college less selective than their high school academic achievement would allow — related
• Among selective enrollment students, 64 percent are qualified to attend a selective or very selective college but only 37 percent enroll in one — related
• Nearly two-thirds of graduates from academically advanced programs graduate with access to a selective or very selective four-year college — related
• Among students eligible for highly selective institutions, about 60 percent of low-income students undermatch versus 27 percent of the highest-income students — related
• Nearly half (49.6 percent) of low-income students under-match into colleges less selective than their credentials warrant, and under-matched students are substantially less likely to graduate — related
• Only CPS graduates with access to very selective colleges (above 3.3 GPA and ACT 26+) have four-year college graduation prospects exceeding 50 percent — related
• One-fifth of students in academically advanced programs do not apply to any four-year college — related
• CPS neighborhood IB DP students were 40 percent more likely to attend a four-year college and 50 percent more likely to attend a more selective college than a matched comparison group — related
• Even highly qualified students need strong parental support combined with structured school support to conduct an effective college search and enroll in a matched college — related
• The modal post-graduation outcome for CPS graduates with very low college qualifications is neither working nor in school — related