About 54 percent of Chicago Public Schools students graduated from CPS by age 19 for the 1998 age-13 cohort and by the fourth year for the 1999 freshman cohort¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2005 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2008: local conditions change quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? For the 1998 age-13 cohort, 54 percent of CPS students graduated from CPS by age 19 in 2004, and 54 percent of 1999 freshmen graduated four years later. → Allensworth 2005

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2005¶

Allensworth, E. (2005). Graduation and Dropout Trends in Chicago: A look at cohorts of students from 1991 through 2004, Report Highlights. Consortium on Chicago School Research, University of Chicago. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/graduation-and-dropout-trends-chicago-look-cohorts-students-1991-2004

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Cohort-tracking analysis of Chicago Public Schools administrative records following age-13 and freshman cohorts over multiple years. The report prints the headline rate: "54 percent graduated from CPS by age 19 in 2004."

"Of CPS students who were 13 years old in 1998, 54 percent graduated from CPS by age 19 in 2004. Similarly, of CPS students who were freshmen in 1999, 54 percent graduated four years later in 2003."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• CPS graduation rates increased by 22.4 percentage points over 16 years, from 52.4 percent among students who turned 19 in 1998 to 74.8 percent in 2014 — a broader claim this one bears on
• Only about 53 percent of CPS students who were first-time freshmen in 2000-01 took the PSAE within four years, with rates varying by race and gender — related
• Over 40 percent of Chicago Public Schools students drop out by age 19, with a slight downward trend across the 1991–1994 cohorts — related
• Data coding issues could account for some graduation-rate improvement between 2005 and 2008, but not for improvements in subsequent years — related
• Chicago graduation rates improved steadily since the early 1990s except for the first two cohorts subject to the eighth-grade promotion standard, and age-16 dropout rates declined for the last five years — related
• Graduation rates by age 19 in Chicago varied substantially by race/ethnicity and gender, with African-American boys lowest (39 percent) and Asian girls highest (85 percent) — related
• Freshman on-track students are over three times as likely to graduate in four years as off-track students in CPS — related