Chicago Public Schools dropout rates remained high, with over 40 percent of students dropping out by age 19¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · theoretical r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2003 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2006: local conditions change quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Consortium estimates show more than 40 percent of CPS students drop out by age 19. → Sebring 2003

Evidence¶

Sebring 2003¶

Sebring, Penny Bender. (2003). Research Agenda 2004-2008. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://www.consortium-chicago.org/publications

q2 · i? · theoretical · r2

The agenda cites Consortium estimates as the basis for a planned comprehensive analysis of dropout trends led by Elaine Allensworth, reporting that "Over 40 percent of students drop out by the time they reach 19 years of age"; no effect size is printed.

"Consortium estimates show that dropout rates have remained alarmingly high. Over 40 percent of students drop out by the time they reach 19 years of age."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Over 40 percent of Chicago Public Schools students drop out by age 19, with a slight downward trend across the 1991–1994 cohorts — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Including unverified transfers as dropouts yields dropout rates about 4 percent higher at age 19 and eliminates the downward trend — related
• The rise in diploma earning came from declining dropout rates, which fell from 35 to 11 percent, not from declines in other outcomes — related
• The five-year dropout rate for the first cohort fully subject to the CPS promotion policy (1995) continued the slight downward trend, but pre-age-18 patterns do not clearly indicate a change — related
• Chicago graduation rates improved steadily since the early 1990s except for the first two cohorts subject to the eighth-grade promotion standard, and age-16 dropout rates declined for the last five years — related